Maximizing the Contribution of Aviation to 2050 Net-Zero Emission Reduction Pathways through Evidence-Based Policy

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and multiple influential trade groups such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) have announced goals to make aviation net-zero by 2050. However, in most net-zero pathways aviation is still considered a hard-to-abate sector that is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to emissions reductions in this timeframe. Designing ambitious policies that can achieve dramatic cuts in aviation emissions requires granular empirical evidence on current innovations, investments, commitments, flight routes, and other actions across a range of stakeholders. Here, we build a novel evidence base combining data on aviation start-ups, corporate commitments, and demonstration projects and combine it with a sectoral and integrated assessment model to evaluate how policy action scenarios can accelerate emissions abatement in the aviation industry.

We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a technology-rich integrated assessment model, to investigate different technology and policy pathways to decarbonize the aviation sector in the US and EU. We focus on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and novel aircraft designs (electric and hydrogen planes) as the primary abatement technologies, separating policy actions into technology supply and demand-side categories and accounting for different levels of corporate ambition. We use granular data inputs from i3 Cleantech on aviation start-ups and ICAO on technology development and corporate adoption to quantify the scaling potential of abatement technologies.

Our results show that while complete decarbonization of aviation may be difficult and costly, the sector can deliver emissions reductions that limit the need for offsetting in net-zero pathways. Full decarbonization of the aviation sector will likely place additional burdens on biofuel production and scaling of clean electricity generation unless coupled with demand reduction policies such as mode shifting. Combining an evidence base with policy scenarios can allow policymakers to design and gauge the role of aviation in net-zero pathways more accurately.