Lessons from a decade of adaptation pathways studies

Adaptation pathways planning is an approach that maps the adaptation solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications on climate change adaptation in the late ’10s several research studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits and complexity. This presentation elaborates lessons learned on the use and value of adaptation pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review we find that: a) a pathways analysis has been applied widely and is moving from theory to practice; b) can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; c) complexity of pathways as a result of multiple sectors, hazards, and actions at various scales is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions of the approach. Ways forward to address the challenges and facilitate applications include model-based pathways, nested pathways (at different scales) and incorporating pathways scenarios in climate risk assessments.