Evidence Synthesis of Adaptation Success: Insights from 50 Leading Experts and Implications for Research and Practice

Governments, organisations, and communities worldwide are formulating and executing strategies to adapt to climate change. Yet, how to know if they are going in the right direction? What does “success” in adaptation actually mean? Conversely, what does failure look like and how can we avoid it? To address these questions, we develop an evolved theoretical understanding of “adaptation” and “adaptation success”, drawing from the lived experiences, professional journeys, and viewpoints of fifty of the most eminent adaptation experts worldwide. Our study is anchored in the belief that the worldviews and experiences of those who have made substantial scientific and practical contributions to climate adaptation – be it by coining inceptive ideas, driving political negotiations internationally, or striving for transformative adaptation on the ground – can provide valuable insights into the current state of the field, its evolution, limitations and the pathways forward. To accomplish this, we conducted fifty semi-structured interviews with researchers and practitioners who have dedicated an average of 19 years to diverse adaptation disciplines and practices. Our selection process prioritised gender balance, geographic and ethnic diversity, and disciplinary variety. We reveal a redefined conceptualization of “adaptation” that reflects decades of evolution in understanding and learning, thereby unearthing significant milestones and insights that helped redefine the term. This evolution is marked by the powerful realisation that there are limits to adaptation, which carries, on the one hand, a sense of failure and frustration and, on the other, a renewed sense of urgency and commitment to action. Against this backdrop, our study also reveals a new collective definition of “adaptation success”, which embraces these shifting paradigms. By exploring these nuanced understandings of climate adaptation, our findings offer a compelling narrative that encourages a re-evaluation of current approaches and informs future directions in navigating the continuum between adaptation success and failure.