Does Science Matter in (Forest) Climate Policy?

Is scientific information the harbinger of successful protection of planet earth from the effects of climate change? Employing a game-theoretic negotiation prediction model, we forecast the effects of the various sources of potential influence on German government decisions on remunerating forest carbon sinks, nature conservation efforts in forests, and measures to make German forests more climate-resilient. Decomposing the effects of potential influence of coercion, (dis-)incentives, loyal information, and scientific information demonstrates the limited role scientific information plays in current political decision-making on forest-related climate policy. Our findings suggest that scientific information embedded in the positional structure of powerful actors may have the greatest effects.