Coal and political backlash in Colombia

Voter backlash can pose an important political economy barrier to the public and political acceptability of phasing out fossil fuels. We investigate the case of Colombia, a country heavily dependent on coal exports, which recently announced a complete phasing out of fossil fuels. Using a novel and unique data set, we analyze how municipality-level changes in extracted coal and associated mining employment interact with voting outcomes, looking at presidential elections from 2014-2022. Applying a staggered Difference in Difference design with continuous treatment, we find that pro-mining and reformist parties are able to capitalize on changes in local coal labor markets. At the same time, we find less political support for parties that promote phasing out mining activities, pointing towards increasing political polarization.