Climate Change and Poverty Solutions: Mapping the integration of social protection policies and climate in LMICs 

Social protection programs offer an important policy instrument to manage the poverty, inequality, and other social impacts of climate change. A large literature anecdotally documents the roles that cash transfers, public employment, and other social assistance and labor programs have played in managing both physical and transition risks arising from climate change (Costella et al., 2023). However, despite increasing policy interest, efforts to systematically track and assess these programs are limited. Understanding the extent to which government-led social protection programs integrate climate considerations, how they do so, and whether they have been successful is crucial to inform evidence-based expansion of climate-resilient social protection in low and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Our research maps the current integration of climate considerations in social protection programs in LMICs. We estimate the number of program and their share of the global portfolio in terms of coverage and funding. We also identify program features and climate resilience outcomes of such programs, and, when evaluations exist, we assess the extent to which programs’ climate-related outcomes match their intended or potential objectives.

Because climate features of social protection programs are not tracked in existing repositories, our research first reviewed almost four hundred academic and grey literature documents to map relevant programs. We identified over a hundred such programs, and, for each, we conducted a detailed, qualitative analysis of climate-related program features and outcomes based on official program documents. We then quantitatively analyzed the entire dataset including connections across program types, geographies, features, and outcomes. Findings from the full analysis will be available in March 2024 and a dataset of programs will also be made available when the research is finalized. Initial findings highlight the importance of explicit climate considerations in program design for climate-resilient social protection to become a more relevant climate policy instrument in LMICs.