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The building sector is responsible for almost 40% of global energy-related CO2 emissions (UNEP 2023). If the built environment was constructed with bio-based materials, it could store significant amounts of carbon in the long term. The transition towards a net-zero built environment could be advanced if the materials are sourced from regional forests. We therefore propose an approach to quantify and match the supply and demand for bio-based building materials for urban agglomerations across the world. A key feature is to be spatially explicit, thus exploring the potential for demand to be met by regional supplies, considering the ‘shortening’ of supply chains. The model first aims estimates the potential for regionally sourced bio-based materials to meet the material demand of a transition to a bio-based built environment. Timber Supply is estimated through a statistical model, mapping the potential production. The demand-side is quantified using generalised building typologies linked to high-resolution earth observation datasets for urban agglomerations. To project future demand, scenarios are developed considering key socio-economic developments such as future floor area demands or the adoption of timber construction to outline possible future trajectories. In order to match the supply and demand, a spatially explicit supply-demand balance algorithm is applied to identify regional forest areas needed to theoretically supply future urban construction. Finally, carbon sinks and substitution effects of a timber-based built environment are quantified using LCA approaches. The scenario-based results provide an overview of the potential of future bio-based construction and associated carbon benefits at the urban scale.