Adaptation opportunities for transformative adaptation pathways planning

Adaptation pathways provide an approach for long-term planning of adaptation under deep uncertainty by sequencing individual options over time while leaving future options open, depending on the speed and extent of climate change. Within an adaptation pathway, the implementation of a new option is traditionally triggered by (approaching) adaptation thresholds (also referred to as adaptation tipping points), namely the conditions or timing when current adaptation options stop performing as desired. In this research, we complement these with the concept of adaptation opportunities. We here define adaptation opportunities as the conditions or moment in time when it is beneficial to implement new adaptation options, before any thresholds of current measures have been reached or are even approaching. Such opportunities can result from the cost-efficiency of an action being particularly high at a specific moment in time, and/or the presence of (multiple) specific enabling factors.

We start by identifying which categories of adaptation opportunities exist based on a review of adaptation literature, and we position those within the existing adaptation pathways approach. We then assess how each adaptation opportunity category can be measured and map the different categories across Europe as of today. This results in the identification of present adaptation hotspots in Europe, namely, specific areas where adaptation opportunities are particularly high. Adaptation opportunities can serve to frame adaptation action more positively in such a way that goes beyond avoiding adaptation tipping points. In addition, high opportunities for adaptation may serve as an initial trigger for adaptation action which goes beyond incremental measures and instead may trigger system transformations.