Towards Effective Subnational Climate Policy: A Systematic Five-Step Analytical Approach Based on Evidence from German States

While much of the discussion focuses on international and national climate policy, achieving international climate goals will also require rigorous climate policy action at the subnational level. However, it is challenging to evaluate and formulate the level and type of subnational action required within this complex and interconnected multi-level context. Synthesising insights from projects in the German states of Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate, we propose a five-step analytical approach to derive effective and targeted climate policy measures for the state level. The first step involves scenario modelling and model synthesis to establish an analytical reference point. In this context, we advocate for the derivation of state and sector-level carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets aligned with Paris Agreement requirements to underscore the necessary climate policy ambition. Secondly, a scenario comparison is used to discern sectors where government intervention is particularly imperative. The third step identifies goal-oriented strategies that subnational climate policies should target. Fourth, a barrier and stakeholder analysis pinpoints priority areas for action. Lastly, recommendations for action are derived from a systematic synthesis of the preceding steps. Taken together, this approach promises a systematic and evidence-based method for crafting subnational climate policies, contributing to the overall effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts.