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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240607T083943Z
CREATED:20240508T093001Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240607T083943Z
UID:10000085-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Time is of the essence: Accounting for observed past transformation progress in the ex-ante assessment of climate policies with integrated assessment models
DESCRIPTION:Years of delay in taking meaningful action on climate change\, combined with the increasing impetus to pursue the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C\, have compressed the timescale for decarbonizing the energy system to net-zero to a few decades. The focus of research must therefore shift from the fundamental long-term characteristics of net-zero energy systems to the dynamics of the near-term energy transition.\nIn this study\, we present a detailed assessment of the near-term sector- and technology-specific transformation patterns of modeled energy-economy pathways consistent with the climate targets of the Paris Agreement\, and contrast it to the scale-up of innovative climate change mitigation technologies and the phase-out of fossil fuels observed in real-world energy systems.\nThis approach allows us to (1) derive estimates of the transformation gap\, i.e.\, the discrepancy between real-world mitigation progress and the near-term transformations needed to meet climate targets; (2) use differences in transformation gaps across sectors and technologies to assess which technologies and policies have the greatest potential for accelerated deployment; and (3) derive improved 1.5-2°C pathways that are more consistent with observed transformation patterns\nIn comparing recent trends with mitigation scenarios\, we find that the observed upscaling of solar PV\, wind power\, and electric vehicles is broadly consistent with model-derived transformation pathways. In contrast\, real-world carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power deployment tend to be far slower than in scenarios. Fossil fuel consumption also continues to grow\, in sharp contrast to the phase-out requirements of the 1.5°C limit.\nBased on the findings of the technology gap analysis and using the REMIND integrated assessment model\, we derive new 1.5°C pathways that further accelerate scale-up of technologies with rapid deployment characteristics\, while also accounting for the inertia upscaling of more complex technology systems such as CCS or hydrogen.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/time-is-of-the-essence-accounting-for-observed-past-transformation-progress-in-the-ex-ante-assessment-of-climate-policies-with-integrated-assessment-models/
LOCATION:H 3007
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240607T083905Z
CREATED:20240508T092834Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240607T083905Z
UID:10000084-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Rigorous evidence on climate policies to inform policy design and implementation
DESCRIPTION:Tobias Kruse (OECD) will present ongoing work on the systematic collection of ex-post empirical evidence on the effectiveness of climate policies as part of the OECD’s flagship Inclusive Forum on Carbon Mitigation Approaches (IFCMA) initiative. The IFCMA is OECD’s flagship initiative designed to help improve the global impact of emissions reduction efforts around the world through better data and information sharing\, evidence-based mutual learning and inclusive multilateral dialogue. As part this programme the OECD is collecting evidence from ex-post empirical studies on the effects of climate policies on emissions across all economic sectors with the aim to help governments design more effective climate policies. \nTobias Kruse is an Economist in the OECD Economics Department’s Public Economics Division. He is an applied microeconomist working on a range of topics\, including empirical climate policy evaluations focussing on environmental and economic outcomes\, systematic evidence synthesis and the public acceptability of climate policies. Prior to joining the OECD\, he obtained an MSc and PhD in Environmental Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Sciences (LSE) and was a Visiting Fellow at the LSE’s Grantham Research Institute. He has published in leading field-journals.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/rigorous-evidence-on-climate-policies-to-inform-policy-design-and-implementation/
LOCATION:H 3007
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240607T083826Z
CREATED:20240508T092652Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240607T083826Z
UID:10000083-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Living\, systematic review ecosystem for understanding what climate policies work
DESCRIPTION:Having the best evidence available on what works under what conditions and why is critical for enhanced climate action and progress towards the Paris Agreement. In this presentation we deal with three fundamental challenges for building a rigorous evidence base for evidence-based climate policy. First\, there is an evidence synthesis gap in climate policy evaluation\, i.e. there is little synthesis of available ex-post policy evaluations using rigorous systematic review methods. Second\, rigorous systematic reviews are usually limited to evaluating climate policies in one outcome dimension\, but policymakers have a more comprehensive outcome demand. For example\, knowing about the effectiveness of carbon pricing is an important piece of information\, but policymakers also need to know about impacts on innovation dynamics\, labor market\, competitiveness and so on. Third\, there is a disconnect in the timing of the provision of evidence\, i.e. the evidence is usually not available when policymakers need it. Here we introduce the concept of living systematic review ecosystems as a paradigm for evidence-based climate policy. We address how this concept could be applied in a community effort to build a rigorous evidence to enhance upcoming science assessments such as the 7th assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as evidence-based climate policy in general. Finally\, we will outline some of the challenges that might be encountered in moving towards the living evidence model.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/living-systematic-review-ecosystem-for-understanding-what-climate-policies-work/
LOCATION:H 3007
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240607T083747Z
CREATED:20240508T092435Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240607T083747Z
UID:10000081-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:A welfare theoretical framework to guide policy evaluation
DESCRIPTION:We provide a welfare-theoretic framework for synthesizing the evidence on the impact of policy evaluations and providing ‚fair‘ comparisons between policy instruments. We show how to integrate different outcome variables of interest\, such as costs of a policy\, effectiveness\, co-benefits and distributional effects in reduced-complexity metrics. We illustrate the concept for an ex-ante evaluation of different food tax policies in the EU to assess welfare effects\, multidimensional environmental effects as well as inequality effects. We conclude with implications for future research design and data requirements.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/a-welfare-theoretical-framework-to-guide-policy-evaluation/
LOCATION:H 3007
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