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TZID:Europe/Berlin
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240531T082812Z
CREATED:20240508T101047Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T082812Z
UID:10000108-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:From case studies to climate action plans: an assessment of the efficacy and integrity of subnational climate action
DESCRIPTION:Momentum is building in non-state climate action\, evidenced by the increasing number of climate pledges from cities\, states\, and regions around the world. Subnational governments can play a pivotal role in global efforts to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and limit warming to 1.5°C or below\, yet the integrity of their commitments and plans remains uncertain. We address these critical questions through two related studies focused on understanding the efficacy of subnational climate action: a meta-analysis of mitigation case studies and a qualitative assessment of city climate action plans. \nBased on a prior systematic literature review and synthesis of 234 subnational climate change mitigation case studies from peer-reviewed literature to understand the effectiveness and reliability of various subnational mitigation strategies and policy instruments\, we found that there are substantial differences in the size and certainty of expected impacts from different mitigation strategies. A wide range of mitigation strategies are used in cities and regions\, and misalignment exists between the strategies with the highest expected impacts and those that are most frequently implemented by policymakers. \nThis disconnect motivates the need for further research to understand subnational governments’ choices over mitigation strategies and the implications of these choices for the credibility of subnational climate action. Here\, we introduce a framework for evaluating the transparency and integrity of city climate pledges and plans and present initial findings for Global North cities. This analysis will enable us to identify best-practice strategies for cities\, highlight areas of weakness\, and assess interactions between mitigation and other climate goals. Together\, these studies provide the groundwork for more systematic\, quantitative evaluations of integrity in subnational climate action and contribute to the ongoing discussion of the role of subnational governments in achieving global climate goals.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/from-case-studies-to-climate-action-plans-an-assessment-of-the-efficacy-and-integrity-of-subnational-climate-action/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240531T082635Z
CREATED:20240508T100820Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T082635Z
UID:10000106-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The contribution of voluntary corporate commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the context of EU-mandated policy instruments
DESCRIPTION:Companies in the European Union are subject to regulation through both the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). In addition\, they commit to voluntary climate targets. In this way\, they not only support domestic mitigation\, but also demonstrate social responsibility\, address potential cost increases\, and mitigate risks. Gaining a better understanding of the interaction between government-led climate policies and voluntary corporate commitments could provide valuable insights into the progress and ambitions of companies. This assessment helps determine whether their goals are in line with EU policies and the Paris Agreement. \nTo explore this\, we assessed the 2030 emissions reduction targets of EU companies with approved targets by the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) for the year 2020 and compared them with those outlined in ETS and ESR. Initially\, the interaction between the two EU policies and voluntary targets was examined\, and subsequently emissions pathways were developed with and without voluntary targets to evaluate potential ambition. Our findings indicate\, that voluntary targets could contribute between 4-14% relative to the 2020 EU policies scenario. However\, the outcome heavily relies on the realisation of ETS reductions\, which currently function as a “waterbed”\, absorbing additional emissions reductions from companies that can be traded to others. To implement this effectively\, a separate fund safeguarding future emissions would need to be established. Furthermore\, the results suggest that\, in total\, these corporate reductions are at most in line with or marginally more ambitious than a 2 °C pathway by 2030.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-contribution-of-voluntary-corporate-commitments-to-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-the-context-of-eu-mandated-policy-instruments/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240531T082538Z
CREATED:20240508T100704Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T082538Z
UID:10000105-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Supporting the Paris Agreement through international cooperation: Potential contributions\, institutional robustness and progress of Glasgow climate initiatives
DESCRIPTION:Many sector-level cooperative initiatives involving both national governments and non-state actors were launched around the 2021 Glasgow climate conference (COP26). However\, there have been questions about whether and to what extent these initiatives could substantially contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C. To this end\, this paper examines the prospects of the 14 Glasgow sector initiatives by investigating their aggregate mitigation ambition under current national signatories and the institutional robustness of each initiative. We find that the additional emission reduction ambition of the current national government signatories would\, even if fully implemented\, only fill less than one-third of the ‘emission gap’ in 2030 between the aggregate of existing national targets (nationally determined contributions: NDCs) and the required emission levels consistent with keeping warming below 1.5°C\, while the institutional robustness varied considerably across initiatives. We also found that most national government signatories did not mention Glasgow initiatives in their updated NDCs submitted after COP26. Expansion of the national government signatories\, incorporation of the initiatives’ goals into the national government signatories’ updated NDCs by setting quantifiable domestic targets\, and enhanced institutional capacity are key to successful emission reduction outcomes. We will also discuss the findings in the context of COP28 in Dubai\, where a large number of sector-focused initiatives and declarations were announced.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/supporting-the-paris-agreement-through-international-cooperation-potential-contributions-institutional-robustness-and-progress-of-glasgow-climate-initiatives/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T103603Z
CREATED:20240508T080548Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T103603Z
UID:10000038-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Delayed carbon debt drawdown fails younger generations
DESCRIPTION:Current emissions trends may deplete a 1.5°C consistent carbon budget in approximately 6 years\, resulting in a period of exceedance. To inform the equitable realignment of efforts that minimize exceedance magnitude and duration\, we propose the use of ‘net-zero carbon debt’. Net-zero carbon debt is a measure that combines ‘fair’ shares of a remaining carbon budget with carbon drawdown responsibilities during the period of exceedance. We apply this measure to evaluate a set of regional emissions scenarios ranging from current policies to targets and pledges\, considering the per capita allocation of a remaining 1.5°C carbon budget from the year 1990. Quantifications of regional net-zero carbon debt are used to attribute regional responsibility for exceedance drawdown and proportional responsibility for regional climate impacts if this does not occur. Even under our most optimistic assessment of current global ambition\, younger generations in regions accruing net-zero carbon debts inherit annual average exceedance drawdown responsibilities ranging from 0.7-5.6 GtCO2/year between 2050-2100\, while those born in 2020 in these regions are expected to experience 1.1-1.9 times increase in lifetime extreme heatwave exposure relative to a reference 1.5°C scenario if this drawdown does not occur. This analysis can inform the operationalization of equitable intertemporal and interregional effort sharing mechanisms that persist beyond exhaustion of a remaining carbon budget.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/delayed-carbon-debt-drawdown-fails-younger-generations/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240606T140507Z
CREATED:20240508T080436Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240606T140507Z
UID:10000037-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Fairness and uncertainty in determining national emission reduction targets
DESCRIPTION:As 2030 approaches and current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals\, setting more stringent national emission reduction targets in 2040 and 2050 become more and more relevant. The basis of these targets\, however\, can be manyfold. In this research\, we present a comprehensive framework to quantify national emission reduction targets by distinguishing and varying three types of considerations. First\, the interpretation of the Paris Agreement and how this boils down to\, for example\, global emissions in 2040: not only in terms of temperature target\, but also involving uncertainty on climate sensitivity and non-CO2 assumptions. Second\, we consider normative decisions: the allocation of global emissions is done using six different effort-sharing allocation rules following different principles of fairness. Third\, socio-economic and technical uncertainties also impact these calculations\, such as population projections and the potential for negative emissions. These considerations and their impact on national emission reduction targets are shown on a new open online tool\, the Carbon Budget Explorer\, facilitating navigation through the effects of each of these considerations. We compare these national emission reduction targets to current NDCs and to cost-optimal model outcomes\, shedding light on the shortcomings and importance of international collaboration in reaching global goals.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/fairness-and-uncertainty-in-determining-national-emission-reduction-targets/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T103408Z
CREATED:20240508T080200Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T103408Z
UID:10000035-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Closing decent living gaps in sustainable development pathways with strong equity improvements
DESCRIPTION:Environmental action and international development are two closely linked agendas that dominate international policy discussions. It is therefore important to understand how inequalities and basic needs that are central to development are affected or resolved by environmental policies. \nHere\, we will showcase new development on integrating the material prerequisites for human well-being (using the Decent Living Standards framework; DLS) with energy and emissions scenarios (using Integrated Assessment Models; IAMs). This provides a representation of inequalities in IAMs beyond monetary indicators\, at a country-level\, for three sectors. \nOur new model (DESIREv0.1.0) can be used to both (i) steer the construction of scenarios with IAMs through an iterative process by providing energy targets\, and (ii) assess the size of the energy gap over time\, with the related need for redistribution\, increase in energy use\, or efficiency improvements. \nIn this presentation\, we focus on the outcomes of a set of Sustainable Development Pathways (SDPs)\, which pursue the achievement of all Sustainable Development Goals. All scenarios assume radical within-country inequality reductions and meet stringent climate mitigation targets in line with the Paris Agreement. Between-country economic inequality reduces faster than in SSP1 too\, with the speed of convergence varied across scenarios. \nWe project extremely fast reductions in populations living below the energy requirement for DLS. The energy requirements for DLS themselves decrease due to improvements in service provisioning efficiency. Energy gaps also become very small for household energy needs\, and by mid-century all regions have some energy beyond DLS. We also show how the emissions related to delivering energy for DLS are less than the remaining carbon budget under the SDPs\, but much more if no climate policies are implemented. compare the emissions related to providing DLS to the remaining carbon budget.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/closing-decent-living-gaps-in-sustainable-development-pathways-with-strong-equity-improvements/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T103337Z
CREATED:20240508T075907Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T103337Z
UID:10000034-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Breaking Barriers with Patterns: A Participatory Approach for Integrating Justice into Global Mitigation Scenarios
DESCRIPTION:Integrated assessment models (IAMs) commonly used by policymakers in climate decision-making have been criticized for insufficiently incorporating certain justice considerations\, and for being relatively closed to stakeholder inputs and feedback. Based on a comprehensive justice framework\, this work responds to both criticisms and proposes a flexible and pragmatic approach to operationalize distributive justice: justice patterns. Justice patterns are stylized trajectories that represent a specific understanding of distributive justice\, thereby representing either an Aggregate Utilitarian\, Prioritarian\, Egalitarian\, Sufficientarian or Limitarian stand. Those justice patterns can be used to analyze a variety of distributional questions (the distribution of e.g. costs\, benefits\, impacts) as well as intra- and inter-generational justice problem statements.\nSubsequently\, we use justice patterns to derive justice diagnostics for all global mitigation scenarios that were part of the IPCC’s sixth assessment cycle\, and identify the most prominent justice perspectives in current climate scenarios. Furthermore\, we use justice patterns to develop an interactive web-app that systematically inquires justice perceptions of stakeholders.\nWe find that the app is effective in making justice discussions more accessible and tangible. We further find that what is perceived as just varies depending on the distributed object and that Aggregate Utilitarian – represented by growth in all regions – is not a preferred option.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/breaking-barriers-with-patterns-a-participatory-approach-for-integrating-justice-into-global-mitigation-scenarios/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240604T084226Z
CREATED:20240604T084226Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240604T084226Z
UID:10000297-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Climate benefits of bio-based urban construction
DESCRIPTION:The building sector is responsible for almost 40% of global energy-related CO2 emissions (UNEP 2023). If the built environment was constructed with bio-based materials\, it could store significant amounts of carbon in the long term. The transition towards a net-zero built environment could be advanced if the materials are sourced from regional forests. We therefore propose an approach to quantify and match the supply and demand for bio-based building materials for urban agglomerations across the world. A key feature is to be spatially explicit\, thus exploring the potential for demand to be met by regional supplies\, considering the ‘shortening’ of supply chains. The model first aims estimates the potential for regionally sourced bio-based materials to meet the material demand of a transition to a bio-based built environment. Timber Supply is estimated through a statistical model\, mapping the potential production. The demand-side is quantified using generalised building typologies linked to high-resolution earth observation datasets for urban agglomerations. To project future demand\, scenarios are developed considering key socio-economic developments such as future floor area demands or the adoption of timber construction to outline possible future trajectories. In order to match the supply and demand\, a spatially explicit supply-demand balance algorithm is applied to identify regional forest areas needed to theoretically supply future urban construction. Finally\, carbon sinks and substitution effects of a timber-based built environment are quantified using LCA approaches. The scenario-based results provide an overview of the potential of future bio-based construction and associated carbon benefits at the urban scale.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/climate-benefits-of-bio-based-urban-construction/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102336Z
CREATED:20240508T132428Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102336Z
UID:10000182-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Reducing cost of capital to finance the energy transition in developing countries: a multi-model analysis
DESCRIPTION:Climate stabilisation requires mobilising significant investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies\, especially in emerging and developing economies. However\, access to stable and affordable finance varies dramatically across countries. Models used to evaluate the energy transition do not differentiate regional financing costs and therefore cannot study risk-sharing mechanisms for renewable electricity generation. Here\, we first incorporate empirically estimated cost of capital (CoC) differentiated by country and technology in an ensemble of five global climate-energy-economy models (GCAM\, IMACLIM\, IMAGE\, TIAM\, and WITCH)\, which allows us to identify results robust to structural uncertainty. Subsequently we add a time dimension through financing experience curves\, i.e. a learning-by-doing process for CoC. This realistic costs of capital imply higher financing costs for developing regions compared to others\, so we explore a scenario of reducing these costs: the CoC of electricity generation in developing countries converges to that of the global North by 2050\, i.e. a future world in which international access to energy financing is equal. We explore scenarios under two climate policy scenarios\, in which the world follows Nationally Determined Contributions or is 1.5°C compliant.\nThe effects of the modelled cost of capital convergence policy are multifaceted. The direct outcome is the significant reduction of CoC in the global South. This produces interesting dynamics in the climate-economy and in the equity domains. Within the former\, more renewable electricity is generated in developing countries\, which increases mitigation or reduces its cost\, depending on the climate policy scenario. Moreover\, these changes clearly improve the energy justice of the green transition\, by decreasing inequality along dimensions like energy expenditure and access to modern electricity generation.\nTherefore\, we find significant climate and equity benefits of alleviating financial constraints. The proposed methods can help to model financial constraints more realistically and opens up new avenues for shaping international climate policies.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/reducing-cost-of-capital-to-finance-the-energy-transition-in-developing-countries-a-multi-model-analysis/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102306Z
CREATED:20240508T132312Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102306Z
UID:10000181-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Climate ambition\, background scenario or the model? Attribution of the variance of energy-related indicators in global scenarios
DESCRIPTION:We attribute variations in key energy sector indicators across global climate mitigation scenarios to climate ambition\, assumptions in background socioeconomic scenarios\, differences between models and an unattributed portion that depends on the interaction between these. The scenarios assessed have been generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) as part of a model intercomparison project exploring the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) used by the climate science community. Climate ambition plays the most significant role in explaining many energy-related indicators\, particularly those relevant to overall energy supply\, the use of fossil fuels\, final energy carriers and emissions. The role of socioeconomic background scenarios is more prominent for indicators influenced by population and GDP growth\, such as those relating to final energy demand and nuclear energy. Variations across some indicators\, including hydro\, solar and wind generation\, are largely attributable to inter-model differences. Our Shapley–Owen decomposition gives an unexplained residual not due to the average effects of the other factors\, highlighting some indicators (such as the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil fuels\, or adopting hydrogen as an energy carrier) with outlier results for particular ambition-scenario-model combinations. This suggests guidance to policymakers on these indicators is the least robust. \nHighlights\n• We attribute variation across global climate mitigation scenarios to three factors. \n• The three factors are climate ambition\, scenario background and model choice. \n• Many indicators are well-explained by the average effects of one or two factors. \n• We also calculate the residual not explained by these average effects. \n• This shows which indicators give outliers for some specific input combinations.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/climate-ambition-background-scenario-or-the-model-attribution-of-the-variance-of-energy-related-indicators-in-global-scenarios/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102222Z
CREATED:20240508T132214Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102222Z
UID:10000180-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Addressing path dependence in emissions-economy models for emerging economies: Implications for identifying low-carbon development pathways
DESCRIPTION:Emissions-economy models are widely used for informing low-carbon development policies and targets. These models typically use historical data sets to quantify interrelationships among key variables\, which are then used to translate inputs into forward-looking projections. While such models have been extensively applied in developed countries\, they are also being increasingly deployed in developing countries. These countries are witness to rapid – often uneven – economic growth\, as they transition from predominantly agrarian and low-quality manufacturing to industrialised or services-dominated economies. Given these upcoming structural shifts\, the interrelationships among variables that have been quantified using historical data are likely to be rapidly outdated. As a result\, the internal formulae by which such models translate assumptions into projections may not be fit for purpose. \nUsing a two-part approach\, this paper argues that this path dependence embedded into model constructs can lead to constrained projections for developing countries\, thereby risking misaligned policies. Primarily\, studying six recent emissions-economy modelling studies conducted for India\, this paper illustrates how development choices – which are baked into model constructs – largely shape projected emissions\, energy demand\, power generation\, investment requirements\, and employment implications\, and thereby inform recommendations for India’s low-carbon transition policies. Within this\, the paper explores the shifting interrelationships among three major structural variables that strongly reflect India’s future development pathway – urbanization\, shares of economic output from different activities\, and total factor productivity – to show that most existing models for India overdetermine its future pathway through their internal design choices. \nThe paper highlights how modelling of low-carbon pathways for developing countries carries these additional complexities\, and suggests rethinking how models developed for the global North are used in more structurally evolving countries such as India\, incorporating greater flexibility\, allowing for more explicit structural variations\, and encouraging greater uncertainty analyses.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/addressing-path-dependence-in-emissions-economy-models-for-emerging-economies-implications-for-identifying-low-carbon-development-pathways/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102152Z
CREATED:20240508T132031Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102152Z
UID:10000179-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Towards Effective Subnational Climate Policy: A Systematic Five-Step Analytical Approach Based on Evidence from German States
DESCRIPTION:While much of the discussion focuses on international and national climate policy\, achieving international climate goals will also require rigorous climate policy action at the subnational level. However\, it is challenging to evaluate and formulate the level and type of subnational action required within this complex and interconnected multi-level context. Synthesising insights from projects in the German states of Saxony and Rhineland-Palatinate\, we propose a five-step analytical approach to derive effective and targeted climate policy measures for the state level. The first step involves scenario modelling and model synthesis to establish an analytical reference point. In this context\, we advocate for the derivation of state and sector-level carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets aligned with Paris Agreement requirements to underscore the necessary climate policy ambition. Secondly\, a scenario comparison is used to discern sectors where government intervention is particularly imperative. The third step identifies goal-oriented strategies that subnational climate policies should target. Fourth\, a barrier and stakeholder analysis pinpoints priority areas for action. Lastly\, recommendations for action are derived from a systematic synthesis of the preceding steps. Taken together\, this approach promises a systematic and evidence-based method for crafting subnational climate policies\, contributing to the overall effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/towards-effective-subnational-climate-policy-a-systematic-five-step-analytical-approach-based-on-evidence-from-german-states/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102016Z
CREATED:20240508T131728Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102016Z
UID:10000177-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Maximizing the Contribution of Aviation to 2050 Net-Zero Emission Reduction Pathways through Evidence-Based Policy
DESCRIPTION:The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and multiple influential trade groups such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) have announced goals to make aviation net-zero by 2050. However\, in most net-zero pathways aviation is still considered a hard-to-abate sector that is unlikely to contribute meaningfully to emissions reductions in this timeframe. Designing ambitious policies that can achieve dramatic cuts in aviation emissions requires granular empirical evidence on current innovations\, investments\, commitments\, flight routes\, and other actions across a range of stakeholders. Here\, we build a novel evidence base combining data on aviation start-ups\, corporate commitments\, and demonstration projects and combine it with a sectoral and integrated assessment model to evaluate how policy action scenarios can accelerate emissions abatement in the aviation industry. \nWe use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)\, a technology-rich integrated assessment model\, to investigate different technology and policy pathways to decarbonize the aviation sector in the US and EU. We focus on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and novel aircraft designs (electric and hydrogen planes) as the primary abatement technologies\, separating policy actions into technology supply and demand-side categories and accounting for different levels of corporate ambition. We use granular data inputs from i3 Cleantech on aviation start-ups and ICAO on technology development and corporate adoption to quantify the scaling potential of abatement technologies. \nOur results show that while complete decarbonization of aviation may be difficult and costly\, the sector can deliver emissions reductions that limit the need for offsetting in net-zero pathways. Full decarbonization of the aviation sector will likely place additional burdens on biofuel production and scaling of clean electricity generation unless coupled with demand reduction policies such as mode shifting. Combining an evidence base with policy scenarios can allow policymakers to design and gauge the role of aviation in net-zero pathways more accurately.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/maximizing-the-contribution-of-aviation-to-2050-net-zero-emission-reduction-pathways-through-evidence-based-policy/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240609T153659Z
CREATED:20240609T153659Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T153659Z
UID:10000302-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:A call for action – applying the Evidence-Based Research Network approach to climate change research
DESCRIPTION:Background: Research on research has shown the scientific\, ethical\, and resource costs of unnecessary (redundant) studies. Many redundant studies could be avoided if prior research is considered in a systematic and transparent way before starting the new study. Once the study has been completed\, systematic syntheses help with the interpretation of new results\, facilitating the placing of new findings into the context of the existing knowledge and highlighting evidence gaps.\nObjectives: The Evidence-Based Research Network (EBRNetwork) was established in 2014 to promote the use of an Evidence-Based Research (EBR) approach\, i.e. the use of prior research in a systematic and transparent way to inform a new study so that it answers questions that matter in a valid\, efficient\, and accessible manner.\nMethods: Between 2018 and 2023\, the EBRNetwork received funding from the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) for its COST Action EVidence Based RESearch (EVBRES) [CA-17117]. EVBRES aimed to build the EBRNetwork’s network and capacity and to promote the use of the EBR approach among clinical researchers\, funders\, ethics committees\, and publishers across Europe.\nResults: Over 4.5 years\, EVBRES organized 3 EBR Conferences\, published > 30 articles\, and developed EBR training materials/manual for researchers\, reaching an estimated 20\,000 people internationally.\nConclusions: Using momentum from EVBRES\, current efforts are focused on securing the sustainability of the EBRNetwork and expanding the EBR approach worldwide to other scientific disciplines. There is now a need to evaluate the extent to which climate change research is affected by a lack of EBR adherence (in healthcare an estimated 50%)\, contributing to research waste and opportunity loss of funding resources. In parallel\, EBR awareness and capacity building will support optimal use of existing and future evidence\, resulting in more valuable research to inform climate change assessments and policy decisions.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/a-call-for-action-applying-the-evidence-based-research-network-approach-to-climate-change-research/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090807Z
CREATED:20240529T090807Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090807Z
UID:10000290-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Does Science Matter in (Forest) Climate Policy?
DESCRIPTION:Is scientific information the harbinger of successful protection of planet earth from the effects of climate change? Employing a game-theoretic negotiation prediction model\, we forecast the effects of the various sources of potential influence on German government decisions on remunerating forest carbon sinks\, nature conservation efforts in forests\, and measures to make German forests more climate-resilient. Decomposing the effects of potential influence of coercion\, (dis-)incentives\, loyal information\, and scientific information demonstrates the limited role scientific information plays in current political decision-making on forest-related climate policy. Our findings suggest that scientific information embedded in the positional structure of powerful actors may have the greatest effects.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/does-science-matter-in-forest-climate-policy/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090301Z
CREATED:20240508T110636Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090301Z
UID:10000132-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Institutionalising the use of evidence in environmental policy decision-making in South Africa: process\, structures\, and good governance of evidence
DESCRIPTION:This presentation will assess the status quo of the institutionalisation of the use of evidence in environmental policy decision-making in South Africa. Based on nine years of supporting the center of government and environmental ministries in the country\, we will unpack the history and politics of the process of institutionalising evidence use for environmental policy decision-making. This will include case studies of major institutional developments such as the formation of the Department of Planning\, Monitoring and Evaluation\, the design and implementation of the National Evaluation System\, the introduction of the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment System (SEIAS)\, and the development of responsive evidence management and embedded co-production in the public sector. Using a new checklist for assessing the level of institutionalisation of evidence use\, we will then provide a transparent account of the current extent of institutionalisation within the environmental evidence ecosystem in the country. By doing so\, we will highlight gaps and best practice in the use of evidence and recommend steps towards ensuring a sustainable system of evidence use at all levels of policy decision-making.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/institutionalising-the-use-of-evidence-in-environmental-policy-decision-making-in-south-africa-process-structures-and-good-governance-of-evidence/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090215Z
CREATED:20240508T110529Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090215Z
UID:10000131-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Global expert evaluations of net-zero policies and actors
DESCRIPTION:To successfully achieve the net-zero transition on ambitious timelines\, stakeholders from across the public and private sectors must collaborate and pursue multiple\, parallel policy solutions. In an international sample of experts in the net-zero energy transition (n = 430)\, we investigate patterns of policy support and actor responsibility. We investigate the preference schemata that shape experts’ preferred solution-sets—whether they use a single-solution (i.e.\, ‘silver bullet’) or a multi-solution (i.e.\, ‘silver buckshot’) schema. Overall\, we find high support for multiple policies\, including the policies of funding research\, required reporting\, and ambitious mandatory energy efficiency standards. We also find that perceived support for the net-zero energy transition from the public is associated with greater policy support by experts. To explore the comprehensive policy mix we apply the Causal Attribute Network (CAN) model to the ratings of policy instruments (mechanism support) and implementation (actor responsibility). We identify policy- and actor-level clusters of preference and interactions between different policies and actors. Finally\, we identify eleven communities of experts that are characterized by their policy and actor evaluations. The largest community supports mandatory policies with a non-economic mechanism. Communities have different distinguishing features. Community membership accounts for variation in policy and actor ratings beyond that which is captured by demographic measures and project experience. Taken together\, the individual- and network-level analyses reveal that experts are willing to accept multi-pronged solutions\, but the specific solutions set is heterogeneous and reveals different cooperative paths to net-zero. We offer a new perspective for thinking about policy packages for the energy transition and advanced methods to measure the support for multi-solution policy packages.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/global-expert-evaluations-of-net-zero-policies-and-actors/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090138Z
CREATED:20240508T110433Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090138Z
UID:10000130-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Introducing the "What Works in Climate Policy" Project: Catalyzing Green Budgeting in Catalonia
DESCRIPTION:Catalonia\, in order to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges\, apart from prioritizing relevant direct policy measures\, is also developing an ambitious and holistic green budgeting reform\, which covers the whole budget cycle and components\, including revenue and expenditure tagging\, budget requests climate appraisal\, climate fiscal risks identification and management\, climate-focused policy evaluations and generating evidence for better policies in the climate and environmental area. \nPrecisely\, in regard to generating policy evidence\, the Catalan government and the Catalan Institute for Public Policy Evaluation (Ivàlua) are jointly launching the “”What Works in Climate Policy””. This initiative aims to bridge the gap between scientific evidence and policy formulation\, so that evidence use\, and policy evaluations are systematically incorporated in climate policy-design processes\, and therefore\, favoring greater policy effectiveness in such policies. The main expected outputs of this project are concise and accessible evidence review reports\, and complementary events and workshops to disseminate the obtained evidence. \nThe initiative is ambitious in the way it intends to actively engage key stakeholders within Catalonia’s climate policy ecosystem at every stage of the evidence synthesis and dissemination process. First\, through a project taskforce that comprises the Directorate-General of Budget\, the Department of Climate Action and Ivàlua. Then\, university experts are entrusted with the synthesis of evidence\, focusing on the effectiveness of diverse policy tools in achieving specific climate objectives. Additionally\, a select group of local experts from Catalan public administration\, non-governmental organizations\, and academia will contribute with valuable insights throughout the entire process. Finally\, to enhance practical implementation\, targeted workshops will be organized for professionals from units with competencies in the subject matter of each evidence review to incentivize the actual utilization of synthesized evidence to inform and shape climate policy decisions.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/introducing-the-what-works-in-climate-policy-project-catalyzing-green-budgeting-in-catalonia/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090101Z
CREATED:20240508T110325Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090101Z
UID:10000129-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Using evidence mapping and co-production to establish a responsive evidence synthesis service in the environmental sector in South Africa
DESCRIPTION:Policymakers in the environmental sector require timely access to the most relevant and high-quality evidence in order to support decision-making. Rapid response services (RRS) present one mechanism to provide these environmental policymakers with such access. Since 2018\, the Johannesburg Centre for Environmental Evidence has implemented such an RRS with the National Department of Environmental Affairs in South Africa. Modelled on the pioneering RRS in Uganda at Makerere University\, our service too is based on rapid evidence synthesis methodology. The South African Responsive Environmental Evidence Service (REES) is powered by a mega map of all environmental evidence in the county\, comprising over 2000 pieces of evidence. In addition\, our service places an emphasis on co-construction of evidence introducing an element of ‘responsiveness’ over ‘rapidness’. That is\, the environmental policymakers are involved in each step of the rapid evidence response and shape its design. This presentation will summarise our learning on the RESS including the initial design and subsequent adaptations.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/using-evidence-mapping-and-co-production-to-establish-a-responsive-evidence-synthesis-service-in-the-environmental-sector-in-south-africa/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090023Z
CREATED:20240508T110215Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090023Z
UID:10000128-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Synthesizing and communicating evidence for climate policies to European policy-makers
DESCRIPTION:The European Parliament has been a major actor in defining policies to achieve climate neutrality\, notably with the adoption of the European Climate Law and the ‘Fit for 55’ package. In 2020\, the European Parliament Research Service (EPRS) established a Climate Action Research and Tracking Service with the task to synthesize and communicate evidence for climate policies to the Members of the European Parliament. The service aims to provide authoritative\, objective and unbiased information and analysis to the political decision-makers\, in clear language and supported by graphs and infographics. This should enable policy-makers to make well-informed decisions on highly technical legislative proposals in the area of climate action – “empowering by knowledge”.\nOur approach is to provide evidence from different perspectives (scientific\, technological\, economic\, social\, legal\, political)\, drawing on a variety of sources including IPCC and other assessment reports\, peer-reviewed publications\, Eurostat and other statistical sources\, think tank and industry publications\, European Commission’s impact assessment and other modelling studies\, opinion surveys.\nOur output consists of publicly available studies\, briefing papers and infographics\, and confidential in-person briefings and replies to individual information requests. We produced a series of publications on climate action performance and strategies of the EU\, each Member State\, and major economies outside of Europe.\nWe encountered the following challenges in communicating scientific/economic evidence to decision-makers\, who often have limited time and attention span:\n– Communicate risk\, probability and uncertainty in a clear manner\n– Simplify complex concepts to make them understandable\, but avoiding inaccurate or misleading statements\n– Selecting the most relevant facts and data points to communicate\nAs the Parliament has the powers to amend legislative proposals in the area of climate action\, there is an unmet need for evidence regarding the expected impacts of such amendments on GHG emissions\, employment and competitiveness.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/synthesizing-and-communicating-evidence-for-climate-policies-to-european-policy-makers/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080915Z
CREATED:20240508T114349Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080915Z
UID:10000157-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Wikimedia Projects as Key Elements of the Global Climate Literacy Landscape
DESCRIPTION:As climate-related matters touch ever more aspects of ever more people’s lives\, it is essential to provide the public with verifiable information that helps to understand climate issues and their ramifications\, including potential solutions and the conditions under which they might or might not work. Wikimedia projects – i.e. Wikipedia and its sister sites like Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons – can and do play an important role in building\, strengthening and sustaining climate literacy: they provide a sizeable share of the global population with general reference information on a very broad range of climate-related topics\, in a place where people and machines are looking for such information\, in languages that they can understand\, on an ongoing basis and in ways that allow essentially any individual or group to participate. \nThis contribution will provide a guided tour around how various climate issues and potential solutions are reflected in the content and in the workflows of various Wikimedia projects. Examples will be drawn from various domains of climate-related research and practice. The discussion will include biases and gaps in coverage as well as the handling of misinformation and other non-constructive contributions. It will also outline opportunities for actors in the climate solution and climate literacy space to embrace the collaborative nature of these platforms and to engage with their contents\, communities or technology stack. Different forms of such engagement will be demoed.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/wikimedia-projects-as-key-elements-of-the-global-climate-literacy-landscape/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080801Z
CREATED:20240508T114127Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080801Z
UID:10000155-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The IPCC at a crossroads: leaving policy relevance behind?
DESCRIPTION:The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been a crucial facilitator of climate change research and governance. A special collection of npj Climate Action have published a range of research articles\, reviews and perspectives that discuss the achievements of the IPCC\, the challenges it faces when it enters its 7th assessment cycle\, and suggestions for solutions. In this piece we assess all the contributions on the IPCC in the npj Climate Action journal\, see these in relation to resource constraints of the IPCC and the decisions already made that will constrain and facilitate the work of the IPCC in the coming assessment cycle. On this backdrop\, we develop answers to the question: How can IPCC processes and outcomes be reformed to produce knowledge that is more relevant for climate action? In this outro\, we pay specific attention to the four possible reform agendas for the IPCC in the form of ideal types that we presented in the introduction to the special collection: Back to Basics\, Orchestrating\, Broad Knowledge Generation and Reflexive Learning. We show that all of these have their advantages and disadvantages\, but the IPCC cannot achieve everything all ant once.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-ipcc-at-a-crossroads-leaving-policy-relevance-behind/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080731Z
CREATED:20240508T114005Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080731Z
UID:10000154-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Use systematic reviews to inform IPCC uncertainty assessments
DESCRIPTION:Acknowledging that effective communication of uncertainty is a critical element of scientific assessment\, the IPCC has adopted a standardized uncertainty assessment framework to enhance transparency and dependability in its findings. Despite these efforts\, author teams frequently encounter difficulties in the assessment process\, leading to unclear assessment justifications and confusion among readers of the report. \nOur study displays how to use rigorous and transparent evidence synthesis methods\, typically found in systematic reviews and meta-analyses\, to enhance the assessment of uncertainties. Focusing on empirical ex-post evidence\, we show how IPCC authors can use the information provided by gold standard systematic reviews to evaluate all dimensions that are relevant for the assessment of uncertainty – type\, amount\, quantity\, quality\, consistency and agreement – while providing a clear and traceable rationale for their assessment decision. \nTo better guide and structure the assessment\, we advocate for the adoption of assessment summary tables\, inspired by the Grading of Recommendations\, Assessment\, Development\, and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence-to-decision framework. These tables streamline the assessment process and significantly boost transparency. \nOur approach demonstrates a practical and effective method for authors to adhere to the IPCC’s standards for uncertainty assessment\, thereby contributing to more reliable and credible scientific assessments in the field of climate action.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/use-systematic-reviews-to-inform-ipcc-uncertainty-assessments/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080526Z
CREATED:20240508T113839Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080526Z
UID:10000153-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Questioning the use of median values in IPCC AR6 scenarios
DESCRIPTION:In 2022\, the IPCC WGIII finalized the 6th assessment report (AR6) and delivered an open database hosted by IIASA that collects detailed data on possible transition pathways related to the third chapter.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/questioning-the-use-of-median-values-in-ipcc-ar6-scenarios/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080443Z
CREATED:20240508T113553Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080443Z
UID:10000152-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Indicators of Global Climate Change
DESCRIPTION:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)\, including the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However\, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years\, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. \nWe follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers\, greenhouse gas concentrations\, radiative forcing\, surface temperature changes\, the Earth’s energy imbalance\, warming attributed to human activities\, the remaining carbon budget\, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort\, grounded in an open data\, open science approach\, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192\, Smith et al.\, 2023a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods\, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. \nOver the 2013–2022 period\, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 ∘C per decade.Despite this\, there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have slowed\, and depending on societal choices\, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for human influence on climate.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/indicators-of-global-climate-change/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR