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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for What Works Climate Solutions
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TZID:Europe/Berlin
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T084500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T090000
DTSTAMP:20240609T132708Z
CREATED:20240522T110351Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132708Z
UID:10000281-1718181900-1718182800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Assessing land-based climate solutions in IPCC assessments
DESCRIPTION:Cheikh Mbow is Director General at Centre de Suivi Ecologique\, Sénégal.\nKey messages: \n\nMany land-based adaptation and mitigation climate solutions can also combat desertification\, land degradation and enhanced food security.\nMost of the response options assessed contribute positively to sustainable development and other societal goals (high confidence). \nIPCC assessment would benefit from more efficient closing of evidence gaps. In particular\, it is critical to have better evidence on what natural climate solutions work\, under what conditions\, and why – in developing countries opportunities to lift global environmental assessments as well as evidence synthesis to the next level.\n\nFollowed by a panel on Natural climate solutions
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-assessing-land-based-climate-solutions-in-ipcc-assessments/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T083000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T084500
DTSTAMP:20240609T132618Z
CREATED:20240522T110115Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132618Z
UID:10000280-1718181000-1718181900@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Mapping out the evidence on the role of natural climate solutions in climate change mitigation
DESCRIPTION:Samantha Cheng is Director of Conservation Evidence at World Wildlife Fund.\nKey messages: \n\nSystematic mapping of the evidence on climate solutions is critical for efficient synthesis efforts\, the identification of evidence gaps as well as efficiently allocating scarce research funding resources\nThe evidence base for NbIs is significant and growing – with the majority assessing the relationship NBS and proxy outcomes of climate change mitigation. \nKey gaps in knowledge hamper the ability to inform ongoing and future investment and implementation at scale. \n\nFollowed by a panel on Natural climate solutions
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-mapping-out-the-evidence-on-the-role-of-natural-climate-solutions-in-climate-change-mitigation/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T173000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T183000
DTSTAMP:20240609T115208Z
CREATED:20240522T105530Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T115208Z
UID:10000278-1718127000-1718130600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel - Accelerating progress towards the SDGs: insights from the Global SDG Synthesis Coalition
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: John Lavis (Global Commission on Evidence to Address Societal Challenges)\,  Yeonji Kim (Green Climate Fund)\, Elke Johanna de Buhr (UNICEF)\, Sven Harten (DEval) \nModerator: Jenn Thornhill Verma (McMaster Health Forum)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-tracking-progress-towards-the-sdgs-insights-from-the-global-sdg-synthesis-coalition/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T173000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T183000
DTSTAMP:20240604T074340Z
CREATED:20240522T105143Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240604T074340Z
UID:10000277-1718127000-1718130600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel -  Challenges to providing a global evidence base to address societal challenges
DESCRIPTION:
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-challenges-to-providing-a-global-evidence-base-to-address-societal-challenges/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111949Z
CREATED:20240508T085431Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111949Z
UID:10000065-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Accounting for Sample Overlap in Economics Meta-Analyses: The Generalized-Weights Method in Practice
DESCRIPTION:Meta-analyses in economics frequently exhibit considerable overlap among primary samples. If not addressed\, sample overlap leads to efficiency losses and inflated rates of false positives at\nthe meta-analytical level. Bom and Rachinger (2020) propose a generalized-weights approach to handle sample overlap. This approach effectively approximates the correlation structure between primary estimates using information on sample sizes and overlap degrees in the primary studies. This paper demonstrates the application of the generalized-weights method to economics\nmeta-analyses\, addressing practical challenges that are likely to be encountered. We account for variations in data aggregation levels\, estimation methods\, and effect size metrics\, among other\nissues. We derive explicit covariance formulas for different scenarios\, evaluate the accuracy of the approximations\, and employ Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate how the method enhances efficiency and restores the false positive rate to its nominal level.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/accounting-for-sample-overlap-in-economics-meta-analyses-the-generalized-weights-method-in-practice/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111920Z
CREATED:20240508T085327Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111920Z
UID:10000064-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The Price Elasticity of Heating and Cooling Energy Demand: A Meta-Analysis
DESCRIPTION:We follow a registered pre-analysis plan (\href{https://osf.io/zdche}{https://osf.io/zdche}) to create a large meta-dataset from the international literature on price elasticities of energy demand for heating and cooling of households and businesses. The dataset comprises 442 primary studies with more than 4971 price elasticity estimates\, their standard errors as well as relevant study and observation characteristics. We show that there is substantial publication bias with insignificant or positive elasticities being underreported. Thus\, the simple average of all estimates exaggerates the true short and long-run elasticities. Correcting for this bias\, the price elasticities are much closer to zero\, indicating a weaker effect of energy price rises on heating and cooling energy demand than previously expected.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-price-elasticity-of-heating-and-cooling-energy-demand-a-meta-analysis/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111830Z
CREATED:20240508T085201Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111830Z
UID:10000063-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:State vs market: Do sources of energy price changes matter for demand elasticities?
DESCRIPTION:CO2 pricing via taxes or emission trading schemes (ETS) should create incentives for companies and individuals to reduce their carbon footprint. We exploit a large meta-dataset of price elasticities for heating and cooling energy sources. We compare elasticities from both state-led and market-led changes\, controlling for study-design characteristics. Our working hypothesis is that taxes and ETS have a stronger steering effect than energy price changes stemming from mere market price fluctuations\, in line with (Andersson 2019).
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/state-vs-market-do-sources-of-energy-price-changes-matter-for-demand-elasticities/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111751Z
CREATED:20240508T084946Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111751Z
UID:10000062-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Spurious Precision in Meta-Analysis of Observational Research
DESCRIPTION:Meta-analysis upweights studies reporting lower standard errors and hence more precision. But in observational settings\, precision is not given to the researcher. Precision must be estimated\, and thus can be p-hacked to achieve statistical significance. Simulations and applications show that spurious precision can invalidate inverse-variance weighting and bias-correction methods based on the funnel\nplot. Selection models fail to solve the problem\, and common cures to publication bias can become worse than the disease. We introduce a novel approach that addresses spuriousness and limits the resulting bias in meta-analysis.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/spurious-precision-in-meta-analysis-of-observational-research/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111713Z
CREATED:20240508T084809Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111713Z
UID:10000061-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:More Than Half of Statistically Significant Research Findings in the Environmental Sciences are Actually Not
DESCRIPTION:Researchers have incentives to search for and selectively report findings that appear to be statistically significant and/or conform to prior beliefs. Such selective reporting practices\, including p-hacking and publication bias\, can lead to a distorted set of results being published\, potentially undermining the process of knowledge accumulation and evidence-based decision making. We take stock of the state of empirical research in the environmental sciences using 67\,947 statistical tests obtained from 547 meta-analyses. We find that 59% of the p-values that were reported as significant are not actually expected to be statistically significant. The median power of these tests is between 6% to 12%\, which is the lowest yet identified for any discipline. Only 8% of tests are adequately powered with statistical power of 80% or more. Exploratory regressions suggest that increased statistical power and the use of experimental research designs reduce the extent of selective reporting. Differences between subfields can be mostly explained by methodological differences. To improve the environmental sciences evidence base\, researchers should pay more attention to statistical power\, but incentives for selective reporting may remain even with adequate statistical power. Ultimately\, a paradigm shift towards open science is needed to ensure the reliability of published empirical research.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/more-than-half-of-statistically-significant-research-findings-in-the-environmental-sciences-are-actually-not/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T142000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T150000
DTSTAMP:20240609T132405Z
CREATED:20240522T104624Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132405Z
UID:10000275-1718115600-1718118000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel -  The Global Adaptation Tracking Initiative – challenges & opportunities
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: Tabea Lissner (Global Solutions Initiative)\, Chandni Singh (Indian Institute for Human Settlements)\, Portia Adade Williams (ASCEND; CSIR-STEPRI)\, Ken Chomitz (Global Innovation Fund)  \nModerator: Jenn Thornhill Verma (McMaster Health Forum)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-the-global-adaptation-tracking-initiative-challenges-opportunities/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T142000
DTSTAMP:20240609T132323Z
CREATED:20240522T104920Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132323Z
UID:10000276-1718114400-1718115600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Title tbd.
DESCRIPTION:Tabea Lissner is a Research Director of the Global Solutions Initiative Foundation in Berlin.\nFollowed by a panel on The Global Adaptation Tracking Initiative – challenges & opportunities
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-tabea-lissner/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T110104Z
CREATED:20240508T153429Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T110104Z
UID:10000255-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Innovations in Climate Evaluation and Synthesis: Leveraging Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Climate Solutions
DESCRIPTION:Increased availability of and access to satellite and remotely sensed data have paved the way for innovations in methods and tools for climate evaluation. These have allowed us to observe\, measure\, and evaluate the impact of climate change on humans and ecosystems at a relatively low cost. High-resolution and frequent observations from satellites have facilitated the creation of wide ranging and precise proxy indicators (complementary to traditional on-the-ground measures) to observe environmental outcomes such as carbon emissions\, land use changes\, and vegetation health. The volume of available data has enabled the training of robust machine learning models\, allowing for more accurate classification\, detection\, and prediction tasks in geospatial analysis. \nIn this presentation\, we explore the pivotal role of these innovations in enhancing climate evaluation methodologies and driving informed\, evidence-based decision-making in climate policy. In doing so\, we share an interface called “Remote Sensing Indicators for Development”\, a resource compiling existing literature\, empirical applications\, and guidance on the use of remote sensing and machine learning in evidence generation and synthesis. We showcase the multifaceted ways in which researchers may use this resource in their own work – to further their understanding of the distinctions and the comparability between various remotely sensed indices\, including their advantages and disadvantages\, and to determine which indices may be used for ML-based prediction in regions where data is lacking. This presentation fills a critical knowledge gap by offering a comprehensive resource that explores the spectrum of applications that leverage remote sensing indicators and machine learning in climate evaluation.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/innovations-in-climate-evaluation-and-synthesis-leveraging-remote-sensing-and-machine-learning-for-climate-solutions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T105912Z
CREATED:20240508T153114Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T105912Z
UID:10000252-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Framing Political Communication on Climate Change: A Topic Modeling Analysis of German Governmental Institutions' Press Releases
DESCRIPTION:Beyond designing climate policies\, the communication strategies and storytelling approaches employed by policymakers largely shape public engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation activities. This is due to the fact that communication design impacts the decision-making processes of information recipients\, a phenomenon known as choice architecture\, thereby influencing individual attitudes\, behaviors\, and actions. In an effort to understand the nature and impact of German political climate communications\, this research analyzes climate-related press releases from the German Federal Government (Bundeskanzleramt) and all 15 ministries to uncover key patterns\, narratives\, frames\, and sentiments. A comprehensive text dataset was constructed via scraping the publicly available press releases from the websites of each governmental institution\, in addition to requesting those press release texts per email from the institutions directly in cases of difficulties in scraping or missing documents online. The resulting dataset of press releases for the three-year timeframe 2021-2023 (n = 9707)\, which is limited to the current legislative period\, was then filtered for documents relevant to climate change\, resulting in a final dataset of 3082 documents. Those documents are currently being analyzed using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling\, comparing and contrasting emerging communication patterns between 1) individual political institutions and 2) political parties and stakeholders\, as well as mapping the development of those topics over time. The results are positioned to enable a deeper understanding of the impact of those communications\, promote learning among the various political actors\, and support the improvement of future communication designs to better achieve desired sustainability goals.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/framing-political-communication-on-climate-change-a-topic-modeling-analysis-of-german-governmental-institutions-press-releases/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T105841Z
CREATED:20240508T153016Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T105841Z
UID:10000251-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Mapping the Climate Literature
DESCRIPTION:Synthesis reports\, such as those by the IPCC\, aim to faithfully provide a complete overview of the entire scientific landscape on climate change. However\, the sheer amount of literature on climate-relevant topics is massive and\, at the same time\, is growing exponentially each year. Therefore\, authors of such reports often rely on existing maps\, reviews\, and meta-analyses.\nHere\, we provide an analysis of the coverage of the literature on climate change by the IPCC. To do so\, we identify synthesis articles cited in IPCC reports and compose a corpus of primary literature these cited articles based their analysis on. We explore the breadth and depth of topics this literature covers and compare the overlap to existing maps of the climate literature and results from queries in scholarly search engines using a comprehensive list of climate-relevant keywords.\nWe aim to show that this methodology can identify potential gaps in the coverage of large-scale synthesis reports to improve future iterations.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/mapping-the-climate-literature/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T105809Z
CREATED:20240508T152912Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T105809Z
UID:10000250-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:ChatNetZero: Harnessing Large-Language Models for Synthesizing Evidence to Evaluate Non-State Actors' Climate Actions
DESCRIPTION:Large language models (LLMs) that power generative AI technologies like ChatGPT and Bard can analyze vasts amounts of textual data to generate easy to understand insights in human prose. But these technologies have also been demonstrated to hallucinate\, generating convincing but false answers; prone to bias\, and difficult to unpack due to the “black box” nature of their underlying models. Particularly with respect to complex domain-specific issues like climate change\, generic LLMs have been demonstrated to produce questionable and often inaccurate interpretations\, highlighting the need for specialized models or fine-tuning to ensure reliable insights and informed analyses. Specifically\, addressing the challenge of parsing and evaluating climate actions by corporations and other non-state actors\, which can range from greenwashing to mere window dressing\, proves challenging due to the heterogeneous nature and time-consuming process of assessing diverse documents. Here we introduce ChatNetZero\, a fine-tuned LLM\, trained on verified analyses and third-party\, scientific assessments of non-state climate actions and policies\, to demonstrate the potential and limitations of utilizing LLMs and generative AI more broadly as an evidence synthesis tool. We will introduce the methodology\, highlight specific use cases\, and share validation metrics for ChatNetZero’s frameworks addressing hallucination and greenwashing\, employing human-in-the-loop validation and perplexity testing.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/chatnetzero-harnessing-large-language-models-for-synthesizing-evidence-to-evaluate-non-state-actors-climate-actions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T104937Z
CREATED:20240508T142553Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T104937Z
UID:10000217-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:AI-driven data complementarity to support international researchers in climate\, health\, and agriculture
DESCRIPTION:The potential for AI to support decision making in international development for climate\, health\, agriculture and associated domains is significant\, but the bias within current AI models favour data and use cases from high-income countries means that there is limited potential to satisfy the needs and requirements of users\, data stakeholders and communities in low- and middle-income countries. Elements of AI-driven data complementarity\, where data from one system can be optimised with data from another to produce new and novel knowledge\, offer an opportunity to not only increase the volume\, but also the diversity of data. This is especially important for the integration of data from low- and middle-income country partners\, who may have valuable data to contribute but lack infrastructure and systems to help make the data more widely available to the broader world\, resulting in an imbalance of ideas and innovation. Significant gaps within the data available to AI models impact the way that innovative AI-driven technologies identify existing and emerging challenges and hinder the solutions that are subsequently developed. For instance\, more than 450 organizations across 25 African countries maintain high-quality data-rich research repositories that\, due to outdated infrastructure and limited resources\, keep them from readily contributing to integrated global platforms including climate change guidance and recommendations for policy makers. Similar issues exist across low- and-middle income countries in Asia\, Latin America\, and the Middle East. In this session\, we will discuss new tools an approaches from the Juno Evidence Alliance that try to ensure AI-based analyses and the large-language models (LLMS) integrate diversity of data in ethical\, responsible ways.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/ai-driven-data-complementarity-to-support-international-researchers-in-climate-health-and-agriculture/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102851Z
CREATED:20240508T113340Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102851Z
UID:10000151-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Public preferences for phasing-out fossil fuels in the German building and transport sectors
DESCRIPTION:In most of Europe\, the decarbonisation of the building and transport sectors lags behind emission targets. Achieving full decarbonisation requires not only the diffusion of net-zero emission technologies but also the phase-out of technologies that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). However\, implementing policy changes in these sectors can have an immediate and significant impact on people’s day-to-day life\, leading to a higher risk of political backlash\, as exemplified by the yellow vest movement in France. In this study\, we investigate public preferences for phase-out policy packages in both sectors in Germany by conducting two conjoint experiments with 1\,777 respondents in March 2022. Respondents collectively evaluated a total of 17\,770 policy packages per sector\, specifically targeting the phase-out of fossil fuel-based heating systems and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). We find that respondents favour earlier phase-out dates for both technologies\, but the type of preferred instruments varies: while regulatory instruments like bans are preferred for heating systems\, economic instruments like taxes are preferred for ICEVs. These preferences are even more pronounced in people most concerned about climate change. In addition\, we find that people with higher knowledge about sector emissions tend to demonstrate higher acceptance of policy interventions and that supportive measures significantly enhance the attractiveness of policy packages. Our findings can inform the design of phase-out policy packages\, potentially increasing their acceptability and political feasibility.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/public-preferences-for-phasing-out-fossil-fuels-in-the-german-building-and-transport-sectors/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102714Z
CREATED:20240508T113028Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102714Z
UID:10000148-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Unraveling the Link Between Political Discourse on Climate Change in EU Party Manifestos and Climate Policy Implementation
DESCRIPTION:How do political parties discuss climate change and climate policies in their manifestos? To what extent does such discourse correlate with countries’ climate policy output? With more ambitious climate action required to achieve global climate mitigation goals\, climate change has become increasingly salient in the political arena. However\, the literature currently lacks a comprehensives analysis of EU parties’ climate policy positions and of the extent to which parties’ electoral programs are translated into climate policy output. In this paper\, we build a dataset of party positions on climate change and climate policy instruments for most parties active in all EU countries from 1980 to 2021. To do so\, we test and apply a set of multilingual transformers to the corpus of political manifestos made available by the Manifesto Project. To test the correlation between political discourse in the electoral manifestos of winning coalitions and the amount and stringency of climate policies that are actually implemented\, we combine our dataset on party positions with data on implemented climate policies made available by the OECD Climate Actions and Policy Measurement Framework. With this paper\, we make the following contributions: 1) The expansion of the Manifesto Project dataset to include specific climate policy variables for EU countries; 2) The implementation of an efficient and replicable pipeline for multilingual and multiclass text classification for political discourse; and 3) The evaluation of correlations between party positions on climate policy and actual climate mitigation policy outcomes.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/unraveling-the-link-between-political-discourse-on-climate-change-in-eu-party-manifestos-and-climate-policy-implementation/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102648Z
CREATED:20240508T112925Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102648Z
UID:10000147-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Breaching the social contract? Insights on the public acceptability of fossil fuel subsidy removal in Colombia
DESCRIPTION:The elimination of fossil fuel subsidies presents a practical strategy for global south countries to bolster climate mitigation endeavours. In our research paper\, we delve into the crucial role of public attitude toward the subsidy removal in Colombia. Since 2022\, the Colombian government has gradually elevated gasoline prices to align with global market rates\, aligning with its aspiration to become a carbon neutral society. A parallel initiative for diesel prices is slated for implementation in this year. \nWhile fuel subsidies historically aimed to support vulnerable households\, their primary beneficiaries are high-income households that consume greater amounts of fossil energy. The elimination of these subsidies raises concerns about the government’s fulfilment of its social contract\, for instance if adequate replacements for poor and vulnerable households are lacking. Other instances\, such as those in Ecuador\, France\, Nigeria\, and more recently Germany\, illustrate how the elimination of subsidies incite widespread protests with broad societal support\, highlighting their role in the countries’ social contract. \nOur research adopts a mixed-method approach to assess the public acceptability of the elimination process and its implications for Colombia’s social contract. We conduct interviews with stakeholders involved in or affected by the process to gather diverse perspectives on the impact of subsidy removal on the social contract. Additionally\, we explore alternative reform designs that could enhance public acceptability. Using insights from these interviews\, we design a discrete choice experiment to test various reform options\, aiming to identify alternatives that effectively improve public attitudes toward the policy.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/breaching-the-social-contract-insights-on-the-public-acceptability-of-fossil-fuel-subsidy-removal-in-colombia/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102620Z
CREATED:20240508T112816Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102620Z
UID:10000146-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:A Systematic Review of the Literature on Determinants of Public Acceptance of Climate Policies
DESCRIPTION:Mitigating dangerous climate change will require a rapid decarbonisation of the world economy\, with emissions brought to net zero levels within the next three decades. By now\, 145 countries covering close to 90% of the global emissions have announced or are considering net zero targets by 2050 or 2070. However\, policies and action put in place so far in most countries are insufficient for achieving their targets. Bolder policy measures need to be passed and implemented—an effort whose success\, as numerous experiences of failed attempts have shown\, critically depends on the level of public support (or acceptance\, at least) behind the policy initiatives. This paper provides a systematic review of the large and growing research into the determinants of public support for climate policy initiatives. Our review aims to achieve three goals. Firstly\, we provide an updated review of the literature\, which has grown significantly since the publication of previous reviews\, and we cover all policy types (aimed at climate mitigation) and all researched determining factors for public support. Secondly\, we provide a rigorous and ML-assisted analysis of the research landscape in this area\, and we\, in particular\, delineate the gaps still existing in the literature\, as well as the key questions that are still open. Thirdly\, we synthesise the state-of-the-art knowledge on political feasibility of climate policies\, and we formulate our synthesis around an integrative framework well-suited to inform future policy design with view of the public’s perception and acceptance.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/a-systematic-review-of-the-literature-on-determinants-of-public-acceptance-of-climate-policies/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T084500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T091500
DTSTAMP:20240609T131855Z
CREATED:20240522T104104Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T131855Z
UID:10000273-1718095500-1718097300@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel - Past\, Present\, Future - towards comprehensive policy analysis in the IPCC‘s 7th Assessment Report
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: Massimo Tavoni (European Institute on Economics and the Environment)\, Keywan Riahi (IIASA)\, Ashrita Saran (Global Development Network)\, Gregor Laumann (JPI-Climate) \nModerator: Jenn Thornhill Verma (McMaster Health Forum)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-past-present-future-towards-comprehensive-policy-analysis-in-the-ipccs-7th-assessment-report/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T083000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T084500
DTSTAMP:20240609T131800Z
CREATED:20240522T104416Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T131800Z
UID:10000274-1718094600-1718095500@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Integrating ex-ante and ex-post evidence for effective learning in science and policy
DESCRIPTION:Massimo Tavoni is the Director of the European Institute on Economics and the Environment\, and full professor of climate economic modeling at Politecnico di Milano.\nKey messages: \n\nModel intercomparisons continue to deliver critical lines of evidence to understand the solution space and alternative pathways for reaching the climate goals.\nOur understanding of feasible pathways to net-zero emissions needs to be complemented by a sound understanding of what policies work on the ground and can bring about the change observed in models in the near-term.\nA sound understanding of climate policy needs to effectively integrate ex-ante and ex-post evidence. Such an integrated understanding should be.\n\nFollowed by a panel on Past\, Present\, Future – towards comprehensive policy analysis in the IPCC‘s 7th Assessment Report
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-integrating-ex-ante-and-ex-post-evidence-for-effective-learning-in-science-and-policy/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T172000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T183000
DTSTAMP:20240609T131550Z
CREATED:20240522T103617Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T131550Z
UID:10000271-1718040000-1718044200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel - Challenges for policy learning from highly localized evidence
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: Winston Chow (IPCC; Singapore Management University)\, Sarah Whitmee (LSHTM)\, Kate Strachan (ICLEI)\, Rachel Huxley (Wellcome)\, Matthias Garschagen (LMU) \nModerator: Felix Creutzig (MCC)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-challenges-for-policy-learning-from-highly-localized-evidence/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T170000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T172000
DTSTAMP:20240609T131439Z
CREATED:20240522T103844Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T131439Z
UID:10000272-1718038800-1718040000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Climate Solutions & cities: Priorities and evidence needs for the upcoming IPCC Special Report
DESCRIPTION:Winston Chow is Co-Chair of the IPCC’s Working Group II for its seventh assessment cycle\, and Professor of Urban Climate at Singapore Management University’s College of Integrative Studies.\nKey messages: \n\nLocal climate solutions have a large potential for meeting climate goals and more often than not co-align synergistically with improving human well-being & health.\nContext is particularly important in the assessment of climate solutions. Finding adequate ways to represent local contexts in a global cities assessment\, both by reflecting geospatial high resolution data and local knowledge\, is key to providing a relevant special report.\nCities are the arena where local behavioral\, infrastructural\, and technology solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized.\nThere is a key opportunity to advance the urban solutions by synthesizing the disparate solution-oriented evidence into discrete chunks of knowledge and typologies that can be easily drawn from by the IPCC author in the Special Report.\n\nFollowed by a panel on Challenges for policy learning from highly localized evidence 
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-climate-solutions-cities-priorities-and-evidence-needs-for-the-upcoming-ipcc-special-report/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240603T071344Z
CREATED:20240508T134108Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240603T071344Z
UID:10000192-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Assessing and Comparing the Effects of Climate Public Policies – A New Approach
DESCRIPTION:Assessing and comparing the effects of climate policy measures is of central academic and practical concern. Existing approaches either focus on individual climate policies or the effect of entire climate “policy regimes.” What is missing is an approach that captures and compares the effects of individual climate policies within the context of larger climate policy portfolios. This gap can lead to inaccurate predictions and a less nuanced understanding of climate policy impacts. To address this gap\, a more integrated analytical framework is needed—one that considers the interplay and cumulative effects of various policy measures within countries’ broader climate strategies. \nThis paper introduces such an approach. Drawing on models developed in the area of genome-wide association studies\, we establish an analytical procedure that (1) encapsulates and delineates the entire spectrum of climate policies and (2) discerns and contrasts the influence of each policy on greenhouse gas emissions vis-à-vis the wider policy framework. This dual-phase process not only dissects singular policy impacts but also places them into a comparative context alongside the cumulative effects of concurrent policy measures. \nThis Bayesian-based procedure – the so-called “Conditional Effects in Climate Change Policies” (CECCP) approach creates a concise overview of a particular policy regime and clusters its components into policies with positive\, negative\, and no associations with emission changes. Our empirical application investigates climate policy effects across 21 OECD countries over a span of more than two decades\, revealing intricate dynamics and efficacy profiles of climate policies. This comprehensive analysis underscores the heterogeneity in policy effectiveness and emphasizes the potential for policy learning and transfer within and across countries. Through CECCP\, policy-makers are equipped with a more refined toolset for assessing the effectiveness of different climate policy options.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/assessing-and-comparing-the-effects-of-climate-public-policies-a-new-approach/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082211Z
CREATED:20240508T090444Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082211Z
UID:10000070-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Building Open-Source Empirical Models to Forecast Carbon Emissions
DESCRIPTION:Formulating and implementing climate policy requires a detailed understanding of likely pathways of future carbon emissions. However\, most existing tools to provide forecasts for such emissions exhibit several limitations. Projections are predominantly made for the long-term\, lacking the necessary detail within the typical policy horizon of one to five years. Moreover\, most short-term forecasting models are closed-source ‘black-boxes’ that do not reveal in detail how the obtained forecasts are generated. This paper contributes to closing this gap of a lack of transparent short-term emission forecasts by developing a generalised framework for modelling climate and environmental policies within an empirical macro-econometric modelling approach that is standardised for a large number of countries but allows for immense flexibility. The Aggregate Model is an open-source econometric model builder that primarily aims to provide empirical forecasts of sectoral carbon emissions. The estimated models are based on econometric tools from the robust time series modelling literature such as diagnostic testing\, model selection\, indicator saturation\, and automatic forecast evaluation. We present an illustrative example of how the Aggregate Model as a model-builder tool can be used to forecast different sectoral emissions in Austria. We therefore provide the first short term sectoral emission forecasts for Austria. By putting open-source transparency and replicability at the heart of this project\, we contribute to opening up the existing forecasting space to wider academic discussion\, criticism\, and improvement and hope to provide crucial tools to policy-makers.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/building-open-source-empirical-models-to-forecast-carbon-emissions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082143Z
CREATED:20240508T090324Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082143Z
UID:10000069-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades
DESCRIPTION:Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. Here\, we provide the first global\, systematic ex-post evaluation identifying policy combinations that have led to large emission reductions out\nof 1\,500 climate policies implemented between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries from six continents. Our approach integrates a novel climate policy database that is the most comprehensive\, internationally harmonized\, policy inventory to-date\, with a rigorous\, machine learning-based extension of the common difference-in-differences approach. We identify 63 successful policy interventions with total emission reductions between 0.6 and 1.8 Gt CO2. Our insights on effective but rarely studied policies and previously unknown effective combinations of policies highlight the important role of price-based instruments in well-designed policy mixes\, and the policy efforts necessary for closing the emissions gap in the building\, electricity\, industry\, and transport sectors.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/climate-policies-that-achieved-major-emission-reductions-global-evidence-from-two-decades/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082111Z
CREATED:20240508T085937Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082111Z
UID:10000068-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Attributing Increases in Green Patenting to Disruptive Climate Policies
DESCRIPTION:While the role of innovation in the green transition is widely acknowledged\, ex-post evaluations of policy instruments and policy mixes are limited to a few headline policy instruments. In this paper\, we use patent family data from 22 countries for the years 2000 to 2019\, covering 95% of total green patenting activity\, and combine a differences-in-differences model with a machine learning-based variable selection algorithm to detect structural breaks in the patent counts time series. We attribute positive and negative structural breaks to policies from the recently published OECD climate mitigation policy database and find that policy mixes that include pricing instruments are most effective in stimulating energy\, solar and wind patenting. The results are robust to alternative specifications using standard synthetic control methods.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/attributing-increases-in-green-patenting-to-disruptive-innovation-policies/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082036Z
CREATED:20240508T085821Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082036Z
UID:10000067-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Bayesian Structural Break Detection for the Identification of Effective Climate Policies
DESCRIPTION:In this study\, we introduce a Bayesian approach to detect structural breaks in panel data in the context of step-shift indicator saturated models. We focus on identifying the magnitude of the impact of climate policies with uncertain timing. Traditional methods for climate policy evaluation often rely on precise knowledge of when interventions occur\, comparing outcomes between treated and non-treated groups. However\, the exact timing of policy implementation is often ambiguous\, posing challenges to these conventional approaches. \nWe propose an estimation method for the parameters of indicator saturated model such as those proposed by Pretis and Schwarz (2022) (see also Hendry et al.\, 2020; Yao and Zhao\, 2022) employing Bayesian methods. Our methodological framework offers a coherent probabilistic framework for the detection of structural breaks with unknown timing in panel data. The setup naturally facilitates the quantification of uncertainty around the estimated break dates without additional computational costs. Our approach applies a spike-and-slab prior (using a Dirac spike and a non-local-piMOM slab component) which allows for model consistency with a linearly growing number of parameters\, while allowing for Cauchy tails to avoid bias. \nIn simulation studies\, we show that our approach is competitive with existing frequentist approaches when it comes to identifying breaks in time series\, and outperforms them in terms of false positive rates. We apply our method to assess the effectiveness of climate policies in the European transport sector (Koch et al.\, 2022). Our findings largely confirm previous results\, but also uncover additional policy effects that merit further investigation.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/bayesian-structural-break-detection-for-the-identification-of-effective-climate-policies/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T081957Z
CREATED:20240508T085636Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T081957Z
UID:10000066-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Towards understanding policy design through text-as-data approaches: The policy design annotations (POLIANNA) dataset
DESCRIPTION:Despite the importance of ambitious policy action for addressing climate change\, large and systematic assessments of public policies and their design are lacking as analysing text manually is labour-intensive and costly. In a project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and ETH Zurich\, we made a first step in contributing to overcoming this bottleneck: We created POLIANNA\, a training dataset of policy texts from the European Union (EU) that are annotated based on theoretical concepts of policy design\, which can be used to develop supervised machine learning approaches for scaling policy analysis. The dataset consists of 20\,577 annotated spans\, drawn from 18 EU climate change mitigation and renewable energy policies and is published open source to facilitate follow-up projects. Concretely\, we developed a novel coding scheme translating existing taxonomies of policy design elements to a method for annotating text spans that consist of one or several words. An extensive description of the coding scheme\, the annotated corpus\, and an analysis of inter-annotator agreement complements the training dataset. There are various potential applications that can build on POLIANNA. Primarily\, we envision this database to be used for building tools that help with manual coding of policy texts by automatically proposing paragraphs containing relevant information. As fully automated assessment of policy design characteristics a long-term goal rather than an imminent reality\, we understand our effort as being an important first step along this way\, hoping to encourage practitioners and researchers alike to pick up elements of our framework in their upcoming endeavours. \n 
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/towards-understanding-policy-design-through-text-as-data-approaches-the-policy-design-annotations-polianna-dataset/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR