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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T163000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T173000
DTSTAMP:20240607T102441Z
CREATED:20240522T110916Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240607T102441Z
UID:10000282-1718209800-1718213400@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel - The Future of Evidence in Climate Policy
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: Will Moy (Campbell Collaborataion)\, Promise Nduku (Pan-African Collective for Evidence)\, James Thomas (UCL)\, Winston Chow (Singapore Management University)\, Ruth Stewart (Future Evidence Foundation) \nModerator: Jenn Thornhill Verma (McMaster Health Forum)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-the-future-of-evidence-in-climate-policy/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T133000
DTSTAMP:20240531T074504Z
CREATED:20240508T073817Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T074504Z
UID:10000023-1718193600-1718199000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Measuring transition progress through systemic indicators: tracking carbon emissions overestimates actual energy transition progress
DESCRIPTION:
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/measuring-transition-progress-through-systemic-indicators-tracking-carbon-emissions-overestimates-actual-energy-transition-progress/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T133000
DTSTAMP:20240531T074430Z
CREATED:20240508T073640Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T074430Z
UID:10000022-1718193600-1718199000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Phasing out coal: technology\, policy and justice
DESCRIPTION:Rapid phase-out of coal power is essential for achieving climate targets. Here\, we synthesize historical evidence on coal decline and phase-out to develop realistic scenarios and inform future policies. \nWe identify 43 countries that have pledged to stop using coal by a specified date. We show that such pledges were initially made by wealthy countries that produce and use little coal\, and only after their coal use had already peaked and begun to decline. Over time\, these pledges expanded to countries with lower incomes and larger reliance on coal. Still\, the planned coal phase-out is not faster than what has been observed historically and is not sufficient to deliver on Paris climate targets. Additionally\, the largest coal users including India and China are yet to pledge a definite coal phase-out. We show that in a scenario where these economies phase out coal as fast as planned in Germany\, emissions from burning coal would be compatible with 2°C-2.5°C warming. \nSuch ambitious coal phase-out would require just transition policies compensating negatively affected workers\, communities\, and companies. To estimate the likely cost of such compensation\, we build the first database of coal phase-out compensation policies worldwide. We show that all countries with notable coal phase-out pledges plan just transition compensations\, globally amounting to over $200 bln. The size of compensation is roughly proportional to the emissions avoided as a result of enforcing coal phase-out and is comparable to recent carbon prices under the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. We show that if China and India pursue coal phase-out in line with Paris climate targets and implement compensation similar to that observed in other countries\, the required financial resources would be as large as already pledged climate finance to all developing countries. \nWe conclude with policy recommendations on accelerating coal phase-out and just transition policies.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/phasing-out-coal-technology-policy-and-justice/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T133000
DTSTAMP:20240531T074359Z
CREATED:20240508T073520Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T074359Z
UID:10000021-1718193600-1718199000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets
DESCRIPTION:Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) plays a key role in many climate mitigation scenarios and strategies\, yet the feasibility of its rapid upscaling has been vigorously debated. Recently\, there has been growing interest in CCS and if current plans are realised\, global CCS capacity would grow eight-fold from by 2030. However\, the bulk of today’s plans are at early stages of development. Can the current push bring CCS “on track” for the Paris climate targets? \nHere we address this question by developing a suite of methods for projecting feasible growth of CCS and other policy-driven emerging technologies. In a methodological innovation\, we project feasible growth using different feasibility spaces for the different phases of the technology life-cycle: the formative\, the acceleration\, and the stable growth phase. For each phase\, we construct a feasibility space using evidence from past experience of CCS and its historical analogies. \nWe show that under the most optimistic yet realistic assumptions about the near-term growth of CCS plans and their failure rates\, CCS capacity would be 0.37 GtCO2/year by 2030\, which is considerably less than most of the 1.5°C-compatible IPCC scenarios. After 2030\, CCS could stay on-track for 2°C if it accelerates at least as fast as wind power in the 2000s and then continues growing faster than nuclear power in the 1970s-80s. Only a handful of the existing climate mitigation pathways meet the CCS feasibility constraints and all of them depict <200 GtCO2 captured and stored by 2070\, which stands in contrast to the higher end of the amounts envisioned in the current IPCC climate scenarios. \nOur findings can be used for setting more realistic targets for CCS as well as informing projections and policies on other emerging climate and energy technologies at early stages of development.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/feasible-deployment-of-carbon-capture-and-storage-and-the-requirements-of-climate-targets/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T133000
DTSTAMP:20240531T074326Z
CREATED:20240508T073334Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T074326Z
UID:10000020-1718193600-1718199000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Aligning decarbonisation with energy security: the case of REPowerEU
DESCRIPTION:As a policy objective\, mitigating climate change needs to be reconciled with ensuring energy security. While decarbonisation is often beneficial to energy security\, the opposite is not true: certain energy security strategies may result in increasing rather than decreasing emissions. In this paper we explore the empirical evidence on the effect of this alignment on accelerating the progress towards climate targets. \nWe focus on the REPowerEU plan proposed in 2022 by the European Commission to reduce the European Union’s (EU) dependence on fossil fuel imports from Russia. We show that REPowerEU aimed to achieve energy security objectives without compromising the EU’s climate goals and that it set unprecedented renewables targets radically departing from past incremental policies. We demonstrate that replicating such targets beyond the EU would be in line with 2°C-compatible pathways. \nWe show that this remarkable alignment of climate and energy security policies has resulted from high-level commitment to climate neutrality established prior to the security shock of 2022. We also stress the key role of growing institutional capacities and emerging technological opportunities\, arguing that the energy security crisis did not create these capacities and opportunities\, but rather enabled their translation into specific policies. \nFinally\, we assess the challenges for achieving the REPowerEU targets by comparing them with forecasts\, historical trends\, and historical analogies. We argue that though the REPowerEU targets are unprecedented in the history of renewables they are not infeasible in light of the growth of nuclear power in the 1970s-80s\, which was triggered by another energy security crisis. At the same time\, achieving REPowerEU targets would require vastly different political strategies than those used 40-50 years ago given the nature of socio-technical and political barriers currently faced by renewables.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/aligning-decarbonisation-with-energy-security-the-case-of-repowereu/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T133000
DTSTAMP:20240604T111858Z
CREATED:20240508T072957Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240604T111858Z
UID:10000019-1718193600-1718199000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Projecting mid-term growth of wind and solar power growth under empirically-grounded policy assumptions
DESCRIPTION:There is no consensus on the policy effort required to accelerate the growth of wind and solar power for the climate goals. Some point out that the declining costs assure future expansion even without strong policies. Others document increasing opposition and non-cost barriers and argue that policy interventions should intensify\, not abate\, over time. \nHere\, we propose empirically-grounded methods and synthesise evidence to understand the balance of declining costs and increasing opposition in order to assess the policy effort needed for accelerating solar and wind power growth. In contrast to dominant approaches\, we use national- rather than global-level evidence and account for both cost and non-cost factors. \nWe show that the growth of renewables in many front-running countries is fast but no longer accelerating and that it does not become faster in late-comers. This indicates persistent barriers which dampen the positive effect of technological learning. We develop a model for projecting global growth of technologies based on evidence from front-running countries. Our results show that under optimistic yet realistic assumptions and without a radical policy or market change solar and wind power could grow in line with 2°C-compatible scenarios\, but 1.5°C-trajectories as well as the global renewables pledge would likely remain out of reach. \nWe also show that a scenario where the recent EU renewable targets are replicated worldwide is in line with the 1.5°C goal. The global growth of renewables in this case would be as fast as the policy-driven growth of nuclear power in Western Europe in the 1970s-1980s. Thus it is feasible to expand renewables fast enough for ambitious climate goals\, but it requires massive policy effort and new strategies to address the very real barriers. \nOur empirically grounded technology projections can be used to assess and inform policies accelerating the uptake of mature climate mitigation technologies.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/projecting-mid-term-growth-of-wind-and-solar-power-growth-under-empirically-grounded-policy-assumptions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T100000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T113000
DTSTAMP:20240531T091009Z
CREATED:20240531T091009Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T091009Z
UID:10000293-1718186400-1718191800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Does policy design matter for the effectiveness of local content requirements? A qualitative comparative analysis of renewable energy value chains
DESCRIPTION:Green industrial policies aim to create local value from renewable energy technologies. Local content requirements (LCR) aim to foster domestic industries by prescribing a minimum share of locally manufactured inputs for investments in renewable energy. However\, the policy effectiveness of LCR differs. Whilst they fostered local industries with rising exports in some countries these goals have not been reached in others. This paper analyses whether differences in LCR’s effectiveness can be explained by policy design elements and interaction with political economy factors. The paper contributes novel insights on necessary and sufficient conditions for LCR policies’ effectiveness in wind and solar energy value chains. It is based on the first qualitative comparative analysis on the topic\, covering 27 cases between 1995 and 2017. The analysis reveals that LCR are only effective in fostering green domestic industries if the enforced share of locally manufactured components is not too high\, or when applied in countries with related industries. Furthermore\, the paper outlines combinations of policy design elements that are sufficient for policy effectiveness even in challenging political economy contexts. These insights on context-specific policy designs for LCR effectiveness are relevant for policy design theory as well as for policymakers and industry experts.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/does-policy-design-matter-for-the-effectiveness-of-local-content-requirements-a-qualitative-comparative-analysis-of-renewable-energy-value-chains/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T100000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T113000
DTSTAMP:20240531T091157Z
CREATED:20240508T133930Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T091157Z
UID:10000191-1718186400-1718191800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:How can we evaluate the policy mix effectiveness? – A systematic literature review
DESCRIPTION:Although there is much disagreement about the appropriateness\, usefulness\, and cost-effectiveness of specific policy instruments\, there is a consensus across disciplines that a policy mix\, not only single instruments\, is needed to fully decarbonize the energy system. However\, there is no agreement on assessing the effectiveness and dynamic interaction within a policy mix. As a result\, we conduct a systematic literature review on existing policy mix evaluation to conceptualize the policy mix analyses from different perspectives\, such as environmental economics\, policy and innovation studies\, and social-technical systems\, and understand state-of-the-art ex-ante assessments of the mix as well as current applications/challenges for the empirical analysis. Some common objectives for systematically evaluating the progress of policy mix output are analyzing not only the density (number) of the policies but also their intensity\, technological/sectoral specificity\, and temporal characteristics (different stages of the energy transition). Ultimately\, this review study will broaden the understanding and be a basis for identifying research gaps in empirical studies related to evaluating policy mix effectiveness and dynamic interaction necessary for the energy transition.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/how-can-we-evaluate-the-policy-mix-effectiveness-a-systematic-literature-review/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T100000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T113000
DTSTAMP:20240531T090620Z
CREATED:20240508T131213Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T090620Z
UID:10000175-1718186400-1718191800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Synthesising evidence on approaches to accelerating the transition to electric vehicles
DESCRIPTION:Given the reasonable assumption that people will still be driving two and four-wheeled vehicles in 30 years\, then the transition away from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs)\, and almost certainly to electric vehicles (EVs)\, is an essential one for complete decarbonization of the transportation sector. In one country – Norway – this transition is taking place at breathtaking speed\, but this is an outlier\, and question remains how to accelerate it elsewhere. There are many policies currently in operation in order to do so\, and many competing beliefs on how to do it better. \nIn this paper\, I qualitatively synthesize the results from separate studies related to this issue\, each of which highlights different aspects of the challenge of accelerating the transition. These fall into three main categories: (1) studies that model consumer choices\, according to economic and convenience factors; (2) studies that examining consumer preferences and beliefs\, to understand the factors that influence their acceptance of EVs and the policies that would phaseout the use of ICEVs; and (3) qualitative evaluation of alternative policy instruments\, to understand their effectiveness at addressing the barriers to accelerated diffusion. The studies themselves have been conducted in multiple European countries\, and concerned both private cars and motorcycles. \nThe synthetic results highlight the importance of regulatory approaches\, particularly with respect to the availability of residential charging infrastructure. They also highlight the divide between popular perception of many environmental and economic aspects of EV ownership\, and a resulting low acceptance rate both of EVs and the policies that would phase out ICEVs. As we identify several causes for this low acceptance\, including the discourses within which EV ownership and use are characterized\, our results also offer lessons to both policy-makers and policy-entrepreneurs seeking to develop politically-feasible interventions.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/synthesising-evidence-on-approaches-to-accelerating-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T100000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T113000
DTSTAMP:20240531T090543Z
CREATED:20240508T131031Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T090543Z
UID:10000174-1718186400-1718191800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Residual carbon emissions in companies’ climate pledges: Who has to reduce and who gets to remove?
DESCRIPTION:Residual emissions need to be balanced by permanent emission removal to reach the goal of net zero\, which has been defined as a balance of sources and sinks by the IPCC. To reach this goal\, private sector action and a rigorous definition of residual emissions is crucial. To identify how residual emissions are currently used by the private sector\, I have analysed 115 corporate climate pledges and their interpretation of residual emissions. The results show that the current ambiguity of residual emissions leads to low ambitions in the private sector. Fifty-five of the analysed companies mention residual emissions\, but only eleven of them linked residual emissions to a specific process or product. From the companies that had a net zero target (69) only 22% aimed to reduce emissions to a residual level and compensate with removals. The residual emission levels in the target year is specified by 28 companies and ranges between 0-80% (mean = 19.6%\, median = 10%\, n=28). More than half of the residual emissions that exceed the mean of 10% are claimed by sectors that are not classified as hard-to-abate such as information technology or communication companies. The results call for a more rigorous use of the term “net zero” as well as “residual emissions” and a dialogue between politicians\, civil society and industry regarding residual emission levels that I would like to contribute to in the oral presentation.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/residual-carbon-emissions-in-companies-climate-pledges-who-has-to-reduce-and-who-gets-to-remove/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T100000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T113000
DTSTAMP:20240531T090444Z
CREATED:20240508T130746Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T090444Z
UID:10000172-1718186400-1718191800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Context factors enabling effective climate policies: A taxonomy of entry points
DESCRIPTION:The effectiveness of climate policies depends on context factors specific to the implementing region. Understanding which context factors are key for the success of a sectoral climate policy is vital to determine promising policy interventions in similar regions. \nWe conduct a machine learning-assisted systematic literature review\, to answer the research question which combinations of policy interventions and regional context factors have been effective for the deployment of climate change mitigation technologies or for the transitioning away from fossil fuels. These combinations are distinct opportunities for change\, and thus entry points for a climate neutral transition. Our review exclusively covers studies that conduct an ex-post evaluation of sectoral climate policies (energy\, transport\, buildings\, industry) and are published after the decision on the Paris Agreement. \nOur aim is to establish a taxonomy of sector-specific entry points for a transition towards climate neutrality. We categorize context factors as enabling factors or barriers based on the feasibility framework by Brutschin et al.\, (2021). The purpose of this taxonomy is to provide policymakers with best-practice policy examples that are relevant to their circumstances. Additionally\, we seek to classify country groups based on specific technologies and similar contexts\, providing insights into the feasibility of best-practice policy roll-out. \nPreliminary findings indicate that country groups regarding the deployment of solar technology depend\, i.a.\, on the degree of current solar deployment. So far\, we can identify three country groups: (i) rural electrifiers (ii) solar introducers (iii) established solar users. Subject to the availability of geophysical resources\, rural electrifiers can profit from public-private partnerships\, while feed-in-tariffs and tax exemptions are promising instruments for solar introducers in fully electrified regions. In contrast\, established solar users benefit from reverse auctioning\, contracts-for-difference and infrastructure investments. We expect to develop a more granular definition of established users within the further process of this research.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/context-factors-enabling-effective-climate-policies-a-taxonomy-of-entry-points/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T090000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T094500
DTSTAMP:20240611T094407Z
CREATED:20240522T105759Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240611T094407Z
UID:10000279-1718182800-1718185500@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel -  The role of nature-based solutions in international climate policy
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: Samantha Cheng (WWF)\, Cheikh Mbow (Centre de Suivi Ecologique)\, Lynnette Neufeld (FAO)\, Biljana Macura (CEE) \nModerator: Ruth Garside (University of Exeter Medical School)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-natural-climate-solutions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T084500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T090000
DTSTAMP:20240609T132708Z
CREATED:20240522T110351Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132708Z
UID:10000281-1718181900-1718182800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Assessing land-based climate solutions in IPCC assessments
DESCRIPTION:Cheikh Mbow is Director General at Centre de Suivi Ecologique\, Sénégal.\nKey messages: \n\nMany land-based adaptation and mitigation climate solutions can also combat desertification\, land degradation and enhanced food security.\nMost of the response options assessed contribute positively to sustainable development and other societal goals (high confidence). \nIPCC assessment would benefit from more efficient closing of evidence gaps. In particular\, it is critical to have better evidence on what natural climate solutions work\, under what conditions\, and why – in developing countries opportunities to lift global environmental assessments as well as evidence synthesis to the next level.\n\nFollowed by a panel on Natural climate solutions
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-assessing-land-based-climate-solutions-in-ipcc-assessments/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T083000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240612T084500
DTSTAMP:20240609T132618Z
CREATED:20240522T110115Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132618Z
UID:10000280-1718181000-1718181900@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Mapping out the evidence on the role of natural climate solutions in climate change mitigation
DESCRIPTION:Samantha Cheng is Director of Conservation Evidence at World Wildlife Fund.\nKey messages: \n\nSystematic mapping of the evidence on climate solutions is critical for efficient synthesis efforts\, the identification of evidence gaps as well as efficiently allocating scarce research funding resources\nThe evidence base for NbIs is significant and growing – with the majority assessing the relationship NBS and proxy outcomes of climate change mitigation. \nKey gaps in knowledge hamper the ability to inform ongoing and future investment and implementation at scale. \n\nFollowed by a panel on Natural climate solutions
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-mapping-out-the-evidence-on-the-role-of-natural-climate-solutions-in-climate-change-mitigation/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T173000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T183000
DTSTAMP:20240609T115208Z
CREATED:20240522T105530Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T115208Z
UID:10000278-1718127000-1718130600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel - Accelerating progress towards the SDGs: insights from the Global SDG Synthesis Coalition
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: John Lavis (Global Commission on Evidence to Address Societal Challenges)\,  Yeonji Kim (Green Climate Fund)\, Elke Johanna de Buhr (UNICEF)\, Sven Harten (DEval) \nModerator: Jenn Thornhill Verma (McMaster Health Forum)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-tracking-progress-towards-the-sdgs-insights-from-the-global-sdg-synthesis-coalition/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T173000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T183000
DTSTAMP:20240604T074340Z
CREATED:20240522T105143Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240604T074340Z
UID:10000277-1718127000-1718130600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel -  Challenges to providing a global evidence base to address societal challenges
DESCRIPTION:
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-challenges-to-providing-a-global-evidence-base-to-address-societal-challenges/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111949Z
CREATED:20240508T085431Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111949Z
UID:10000065-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Accounting for Sample Overlap in Economics Meta-Analyses: The Generalized-Weights Method in Practice
DESCRIPTION:Meta-analyses in economics frequently exhibit considerable overlap among primary samples. If not addressed\, sample overlap leads to efficiency losses and inflated rates of false positives at\nthe meta-analytical level. Bom and Rachinger (2020) propose a generalized-weights approach to handle sample overlap. This approach effectively approximates the correlation structure between primary estimates using information on sample sizes and overlap degrees in the primary studies. This paper demonstrates the application of the generalized-weights method to economics\nmeta-analyses\, addressing practical challenges that are likely to be encountered. We account for variations in data aggregation levels\, estimation methods\, and effect size metrics\, among other\nissues. We derive explicit covariance formulas for different scenarios\, evaluate the accuracy of the approximations\, and employ Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate how the method enhances efficiency and restores the false positive rate to its nominal level.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/accounting-for-sample-overlap-in-economics-meta-analyses-the-generalized-weights-method-in-practice/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111920Z
CREATED:20240508T085327Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111920Z
UID:10000064-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The Price Elasticity of Heating and Cooling Energy Demand: A Meta-Analysis
DESCRIPTION:We follow a registered pre-analysis plan (\href{https://osf.io/zdche}{https://osf.io/zdche}) to create a large meta-dataset from the international literature on price elasticities of energy demand for heating and cooling of households and businesses. The dataset comprises 442 primary studies with more than 4971 price elasticity estimates\, their standard errors as well as relevant study and observation characteristics. We show that there is substantial publication bias with insignificant or positive elasticities being underreported. Thus\, the simple average of all estimates exaggerates the true short and long-run elasticities. Correcting for this bias\, the price elasticities are much closer to zero\, indicating a weaker effect of energy price rises on heating and cooling energy demand than previously expected.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-price-elasticity-of-heating-and-cooling-energy-demand-a-meta-analysis/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111830Z
CREATED:20240508T085201Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111830Z
UID:10000063-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:State vs market: Do sources of energy price changes matter for demand elasticities?
DESCRIPTION:CO2 pricing via taxes or emission trading schemes (ETS) should create incentives for companies and individuals to reduce their carbon footprint. We exploit a large meta-dataset of price elasticities for heating and cooling energy sources. We compare elasticities from both state-led and market-led changes\, controlling for study-design characteristics. Our working hypothesis is that taxes and ETS have a stronger steering effect than energy price changes stemming from mere market price fluctuations\, in line with (Andersson 2019).
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/state-vs-market-do-sources-of-energy-price-changes-matter-for-demand-elasticities/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111751Z
CREATED:20240508T084946Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111751Z
UID:10000062-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Spurious Precision in Meta-Analysis of Observational Research
DESCRIPTION:Meta-analysis upweights studies reporting lower standard errors and hence more precision. But in observational settings\, precision is not given to the researcher. Precision must be estimated\, and thus can be p-hacked to achieve statistical significance. Simulations and applications show that spurious precision can invalidate inverse-variance weighting and bias-correction methods based on the funnel\nplot. Selection models fail to solve the problem\, and common cures to publication bias can become worse than the disease. We introduce a novel approach that addresses spuriousness and limits the resulting bias in meta-analysis.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/spurious-precision-in-meta-analysis-of-observational-research/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T153000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T170000
DTSTAMP:20240529T111713Z
CREATED:20240508T084809Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T111713Z
UID:10000061-1718119800-1718125200@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:More Than Half of Statistically Significant Research Findings in the Environmental Sciences are Actually Not
DESCRIPTION:Researchers have incentives to search for and selectively report findings that appear to be statistically significant and/or conform to prior beliefs. Such selective reporting practices\, including p-hacking and publication bias\, can lead to a distorted set of results being published\, potentially undermining the process of knowledge accumulation and evidence-based decision making. We take stock of the state of empirical research in the environmental sciences using 67\,947 statistical tests obtained from 547 meta-analyses. We find that 59% of the p-values that were reported as significant are not actually expected to be statistically significant. The median power of these tests is between 6% to 12%\, which is the lowest yet identified for any discipline. Only 8% of tests are adequately powered with statistical power of 80% or more. Exploratory regressions suggest that increased statistical power and the use of experimental research designs reduce the extent of selective reporting. Differences between subfields can be mostly explained by methodological differences. To improve the environmental sciences evidence base\, researchers should pay more attention to statistical power\, but incentives for selective reporting may remain even with adequate statistical power. Ultimately\, a paradigm shift towards open science is needed to ensure the reliability of published empirical research.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/more-than-half-of-statistically-significant-research-findings-in-the-environmental-sciences-are-actually-not/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T142000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T150000
DTSTAMP:20240609T132405Z
CREATED:20240522T104624Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132405Z
UID:10000275-1718115600-1718118000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Panel -  The Global Adaptation Tracking Initiative – challenges & opportunities
DESCRIPTION:Panelists: Tabea Lissner (Global Solutions Initiative)\, Chandni Singh (Indian Institute for Human Settlements)\, Portia Adade Williams (ASCEND; CSIR-STEPRI)\, Ken Chomitz (Global Innovation Fund)  \nModerator: Jenn Thornhill Verma (McMaster Health Forum)
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/panel-the-global-adaptation-tracking-initiative-challenges-opportunities/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Panel
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T142000
DTSTAMP:20240609T132323Z
CREATED:20240522T104920Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240609T132323Z
UID:10000276-1718114400-1718115600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Keynote - Title tbd.
DESCRIPTION:Tabea Lissner is a Research Director of the Global Solutions Initiative Foundation in Berlin.\nFollowed by a panel on The Global Adaptation Tracking Initiative – challenges & opportunities
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/keynote-tabea-lissner/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
CATEGORIES:Keynote
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T110104Z
CREATED:20240508T153429Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T110104Z
UID:10000255-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Innovations in Climate Evaluation and Synthesis: Leveraging Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Climate Solutions
DESCRIPTION:Increased availability of and access to satellite and remotely sensed data have paved the way for innovations in methods and tools for climate evaluation. These have allowed us to observe\, measure\, and evaluate the impact of climate change on humans and ecosystems at a relatively low cost. High-resolution and frequent observations from satellites have facilitated the creation of wide ranging and precise proxy indicators (complementary to traditional on-the-ground measures) to observe environmental outcomes such as carbon emissions\, land use changes\, and vegetation health. The volume of available data has enabled the training of robust machine learning models\, allowing for more accurate classification\, detection\, and prediction tasks in geospatial analysis. \nIn this presentation\, we explore the pivotal role of these innovations in enhancing climate evaluation methodologies and driving informed\, evidence-based decision-making in climate policy. In doing so\, we share an interface called “Remote Sensing Indicators for Development”\, a resource compiling existing literature\, empirical applications\, and guidance on the use of remote sensing and machine learning in evidence generation and synthesis. We showcase the multifaceted ways in which researchers may use this resource in their own work – to further their understanding of the distinctions and the comparability between various remotely sensed indices\, including their advantages and disadvantages\, and to determine which indices may be used for ML-based prediction in regions where data is lacking. This presentation fills a critical knowledge gap by offering a comprehensive resource that explores the spectrum of applications that leverage remote sensing indicators and machine learning in climate evaluation.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/innovations-in-climate-evaluation-and-synthesis-leveraging-remote-sensing-and-machine-learning-for-climate-solutions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T105912Z
CREATED:20240508T153114Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T105912Z
UID:10000252-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Framing Political Communication on Climate Change: A Topic Modeling Analysis of German Governmental Institutions' Press Releases
DESCRIPTION:Beyond designing climate policies\, the communication strategies and storytelling approaches employed by policymakers largely shape public engagement in climate mitigation and adaptation activities. This is due to the fact that communication design impacts the decision-making processes of information recipients\, a phenomenon known as choice architecture\, thereby influencing individual attitudes\, behaviors\, and actions. In an effort to understand the nature and impact of German political climate communications\, this research analyzes climate-related press releases from the German Federal Government (Bundeskanzleramt) and all 15 ministries to uncover key patterns\, narratives\, frames\, and sentiments. A comprehensive text dataset was constructed via scraping the publicly available press releases from the websites of each governmental institution\, in addition to requesting those press release texts per email from the institutions directly in cases of difficulties in scraping or missing documents online. The resulting dataset of press releases for the three-year timeframe 2021-2023 (n = 9707)\, which is limited to the current legislative period\, was then filtered for documents relevant to climate change\, resulting in a final dataset of 3082 documents. Those documents are currently being analyzed using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling\, comparing and contrasting emerging communication patterns between 1) individual political institutions and 2) political parties and stakeholders\, as well as mapping the development of those topics over time. The results are positioned to enable a deeper understanding of the impact of those communications\, promote learning among the various political actors\, and support the improvement of future communication designs to better achieve desired sustainability goals.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/framing-political-communication-on-climate-change-a-topic-modeling-analysis-of-german-governmental-institutions-press-releases/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T105841Z
CREATED:20240508T153016Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T105841Z
UID:10000251-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Mapping the Climate Literature
DESCRIPTION:Synthesis reports\, such as those by the IPCC\, aim to faithfully provide a complete overview of the entire scientific landscape on climate change. However\, the sheer amount of literature on climate-relevant topics is massive and\, at the same time\, is growing exponentially each year. Therefore\, authors of such reports often rely on existing maps\, reviews\, and meta-analyses.\nHere\, we provide an analysis of the coverage of the literature on climate change by the IPCC. To do so\, we identify synthesis articles cited in IPCC reports and compose a corpus of primary literature these cited articles based their analysis on. We explore the breadth and depth of topics this literature covers and compare the overlap to existing maps of the climate literature and results from queries in scholarly search engines using a comprehensive list of climate-relevant keywords.\nWe aim to show that this methodology can identify potential gaps in the coverage of large-scale synthesis reports to improve future iterations.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/mapping-the-climate-literature/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T105809Z
CREATED:20240508T152912Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T105809Z
UID:10000250-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:ChatNetZero: Harnessing Large-Language Models for Synthesizing Evidence to Evaluate Non-State Actors' Climate Actions
DESCRIPTION:Large language models (LLMs) that power generative AI technologies like ChatGPT and Bard can analyze vasts amounts of textual data to generate easy to understand insights in human prose. But these technologies have also been demonstrated to hallucinate\, generating convincing but false answers; prone to bias\, and difficult to unpack due to the “black box” nature of their underlying models. Particularly with respect to complex domain-specific issues like climate change\, generic LLMs have been demonstrated to produce questionable and often inaccurate interpretations\, highlighting the need for specialized models or fine-tuning to ensure reliable insights and informed analyses. Specifically\, addressing the challenge of parsing and evaluating climate actions by corporations and other non-state actors\, which can range from greenwashing to mere window dressing\, proves challenging due to the heterogeneous nature and time-consuming process of assessing diverse documents. Here we introduce ChatNetZero\, a fine-tuned LLM\, trained on verified analyses and third-party\, scientific assessments of non-state climate actions and policies\, to demonstrate the potential and limitations of utilizing LLMs and generative AI more broadly as an evidence synthesis tool. We will introduce the methodology\, highlight specific use cases\, and share validation metrics for ChatNetZero’s frameworks addressing hallucination and greenwashing\, employing human-in-the-loop validation and perplexity testing.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/chatnetzero-harnessing-large-language-models-for-synthesizing-evidence-to-evaluate-non-state-actors-climate-actions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T130000
DTSTAMP:20240529T104937Z
CREATED:20240508T142553Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T104937Z
UID:10000217-1718105400-1718110800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:AI-driven data complementarity to support international researchers in climate\, health\, and agriculture
DESCRIPTION:The potential for AI to support decision making in international development for climate\, health\, agriculture and associated domains is significant\, but the bias within current AI models favour data and use cases from high-income countries means that there is limited potential to satisfy the needs and requirements of users\, data stakeholders and communities in low- and middle-income countries. Elements of AI-driven data complementarity\, where data from one system can be optimised with data from another to produce new and novel knowledge\, offer an opportunity to not only increase the volume\, but also the diversity of data. This is especially important for the integration of data from low- and middle-income country partners\, who may have valuable data to contribute but lack infrastructure and systems to help make the data more widely available to the broader world\, resulting in an imbalance of ideas and innovation. Significant gaps within the data available to AI models impact the way that innovative AI-driven technologies identify existing and emerging challenges and hinder the solutions that are subsequently developed. For instance\, more than 450 organizations across 25 African countries maintain high-quality data-rich research repositories that\, due to outdated infrastructure and limited resources\, keep them from readily contributing to integrated global platforms including climate change guidance and recommendations for policy makers. Similar issues exist across low- and-middle income countries in Asia\, Latin America\, and the Middle East. In this session\, we will discuss new tools an approaches from the Juno Evidence Alliance that try to ensure AI-based analyses and the large-language models (LLMS) integrate diversity of data in ethical\, responsible ways.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/ai-driven-data-complementarity-to-support-international-researchers-in-climate-health-and-agriculture/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102851Z
CREATED:20240508T113340Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102851Z
UID:10000151-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Public preferences for phasing-out fossil fuels in the German building and transport sectors
DESCRIPTION:In most of Europe\, the decarbonisation of the building and transport sectors lags behind emission targets. Achieving full decarbonisation requires not only the diffusion of net-zero emission technologies but also the phase-out of technologies that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). However\, implementing policy changes in these sectors can have an immediate and significant impact on people’s day-to-day life\, leading to a higher risk of political backlash\, as exemplified by the yellow vest movement in France. In this study\, we investigate public preferences for phase-out policy packages in both sectors in Germany by conducting two conjoint experiments with 1\,777 respondents in March 2022. Respondents collectively evaluated a total of 17\,770 policy packages per sector\, specifically targeting the phase-out of fossil fuel-based heating systems and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). We find that respondents favour earlier phase-out dates for both technologies\, but the type of preferred instruments varies: while regulatory instruments like bans are preferred for heating systems\, economic instruments like taxes are preferred for ICEVs. These preferences are even more pronounced in people most concerned about climate change. In addition\, we find that people with higher knowledge about sector emissions tend to demonstrate higher acceptance of policy interventions and that supportive measures significantly enhance the attractiveness of policy packages. Our findings can inform the design of phase-out policy packages\, potentially increasing their acceptability and political feasibility.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/public-preferences-for-phasing-out-fossil-fuels-in-the-german-building-and-transport-sectors/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T093000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240611T110000
DTSTAMP:20240529T102714Z
CREATED:20240508T113028Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T102714Z
UID:10000148-1718098200-1718103600@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Unraveling the Link Between Political Discourse on Climate Change in EU Party Manifestos and Climate Policy Implementation
DESCRIPTION:How do political parties discuss climate change and climate policies in their manifestos? To what extent does such discourse correlate with countries’ climate policy output? With more ambitious climate action required to achieve global climate mitigation goals\, climate change has become increasingly salient in the political arena. However\, the literature currently lacks a comprehensives analysis of EU parties’ climate policy positions and of the extent to which parties’ electoral programs are translated into climate policy output. In this paper\, we build a dataset of party positions on climate change and climate policy instruments for most parties active in all EU countries from 1980 to 2021. To do so\, we test and apply a set of multilingual transformers to the corpus of political manifestos made available by the Manifesto Project. To test the correlation between political discourse in the electoral manifestos of winning coalitions and the amount and stringency of climate policies that are actually implemented\, we combine our dataset on party positions with data on implemented climate policies made available by the OECD Climate Actions and Policy Measurement Framework. With this paper\, we make the following contributions: 1) The expansion of the Manifesto Project dataset to include specific climate policy variables for EU countries; 2) The implementation of an efficient and replicable pipeline for multilingual and multiclass text classification for political discourse; and 3) The evaluation of correlations between party positions on climate policy and actual climate mitigation policy outcomes.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/unraveling-the-link-between-political-discourse-on-climate-change-in-eu-party-manifestos-and-climate-policy-implementation/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR