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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for What Works
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T084622Z
CREATED:20240508T150214Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T084622Z
UID:10000231-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:How can cities use machine learning for urban climate change mitigation? A systematic map
DESCRIPTION:In recent years\, numerous cities across the world have shown interest in AI approaches to help with achieving carbon neutrality. There is a need for city policy makers and researchers to get overarching guidance or receive an overview of potential application areas and approaches. Currently\, however\, there is no comprehensive analysis of the existing body of research on the use of machine learning (ML) in urban climate change mitigation.\nWith this research\, we provide an overview of the literature at the intersection between ML research in climate change mitigation and its role in urban governance and policymaking. We conducted this review by applying a systematic map framework that transparently displays mature research areas\, as well as more nascent and uncertain ones. Specifically\, we created the systematic map through manually coding 3\,944 records for relevance\, followed by a comprehensive analysis of 1\,215 relevant papers published between 1994-2021. In the review\, we systematically map the areas of application but also provide an assessment of their climate mitigation potential.\nKey findings include that research is taking place across 57 countries and 250 cities. We introduce over 40 impact areas. We find strong alignment between the most research impact areas and IPCC urban mitigation options with high reduction potentials. And we outline three main roles for ML such as using it for optimization towards more efficient processes\, demand forecasting as well as simulation of impact of planned measures.\nWe then interpret findings in relation to governance and climate policy as well as discussing ways through which the potential of ML can be realized at scale and in alignment with high mitigation impact and public sector demand. We conclude with key recommendations for urban policy makers. For example\, we call for integration of urban governance considerations into this emerging research nexus.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/how-can-cities-use-machine-learning-for-urban-climate-change-mitigation-a-systematic-map/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T084546Z
CREATED:20240508T150111Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T084546Z
UID:10000230-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Indicators and metrics to evaluate urban adaptation: a systematic review
DESCRIPTION:Assessing the effectiveness of climate adaptation action is the focus of intense debates across scientific and policy arenas. Measurement is essential for effective adaptation management and operation\, and indicators and metrics (I&M) are claimed to have a pivotal role. Surprisingly\, there are\, however\, no systematic efforts so far to understand the progress of science in the provisioning of I&M. To shed light on these timely discussions\, we here analyse 137 scientific publications and 901 I&M (including indices) proposed in the literature to measure adaptation to climate change with a particular focus on urban areas. The challenges we have faced speak about a field that is complex to track and understand as a result of a lack of common terminology\, standardisation and reference guidelines. This complexity has originated diverse\, context-specific and sometimes competing approaches to developing I&M. Based on our evidence\, we raise the critique that current I&M proposals are highly technical\, not sufficiently grounded on real needs and have little potential to support effective urban climate change adaptation. Our concern is now how to advance the adaptation evaluation research\, policy and practice field in this messy space.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/indicators-and-metrics-to-evaluate-urban-adaptation-a-systematic-review/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T084518Z
CREATED:20240508T150005Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T084518Z
UID:10000229-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Evidence Synthesis for Shade Design and Decision Making in Urban Built Environments
DESCRIPTION:Shade provides thermal comfort\, reduces urban heat islands\, prevents heat-related illness and death\, and\, when provided by tree canopy\, extends co-benefits to the environment. Despite its importance\, many outdoor public spaces lack adequate or even any shade\, and it is inequitably distributed. The scarcity of shade is exacerbated by the design and implementation challenges of its provision. In the context of climate change\, urban shade scarcity is a design emergency that requires comprehensive and usable evidence to create solutions.\nThis presentation will highlight an interdisciplinary collaboration (public health\, landscape architecture\, urban planning\, urban forestry) that will support evidence-based design practice\, climate adaptation\, and human health and well-being. Our research includes a series of extensive scoping reviews of the literature on shade provision\, design\, policy\, benefits and co-benefits\, barriers and facilitators\, and equity. With methods informed by Arksey and O’Malley and the PRISMA-ScR guidelines for scoping reviews\, six databases have been searched\, 19\,237 articles have been screened at the title and abstract level with the help of DistillerSR AI\, and 2\,371 articles are currently being screened at the full-text level. Data extraction and thematic synthesis will take place in February-March.\nThe results of these scoping reviews and evidence syntheses on shade will lay the necessary groundwork for providing robust and synthesized evidence readily packaged for application by public health and built environment professionals to improve our cities’ shadescapes. Knowledge mobilization will include a Shade Design Framework for practitioners based on the scientific evidence syntheses and a national shade design competition where interdisciplinary teams will use the Shade Design Framework and the synthesized evidence to inform their design submissions demonstrating the utility of and generating interest in\, the Framework and the body of evidence informing its development.\nThis research is funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/evidence-synthesis-for-shade-design-and-decision-making-in-urban-built-environments/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T084444Z
CREATED:20240508T145832Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T084444Z
UID:10000228-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Bus rapid transit (BRT) in developing Asia & Africa: a systematic review of the enviornmental impact and co-benefits of BRTs
DESCRIPTION:We conduct a systematic review of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems and their environmental and social impacts on cities across LMICs in Asia & Africa. Our search strategy involves 3 key steps. First\, we search a database of BRT systems across the world to identify BRT systems in Asia & Africa and collect information about the operational characteristics of these systems. Next\, we design and implement a string-based search query to find literature related to the systems identified in Step 1. And lastly\, we design and implement search queries for BRT systems in general for these countries. Using these studies\, we are interested in gathering estimates related to the environmental impact (mainly GHG emissions) and three major categories of co-benefits: (i) transport-related impacts\, (ii) economic & social impacts\, and (iii) health impacts.\nBased on initial literature screening we can identify more than 120 original studies on approx. 30 BRT systems. We report three types of outcomes resulting from the search process; (i) evidence maps and gaps of BRT systems literature\, (ii) evidence on transport\, social\, economic\, and environmental impact of BRTs\, and lastly (iii) critical analysis of the underlying studies\, including information availability analysis\, risk of bias\, strength of evidence analysis. Early results suggest that while BRT systems have a more limited impact on some transport-related outcomes such as transport mode shift\, their impact on accessibility and health outcomes (particularly air pollution and accidents) alone is quite large. We compare these impacts of BRT systems to other transport system interventions using standard terms of cost-benefit analysis\, underlying the benefits and shortcomings of these systems. Given the nature of this systematic review\, we also devise a plan to convert this review into a living review form.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/bus-rapid-transit-brt-in-developing-asia-africa-a-systematic-review-of-the-enviornmental-impact-and-co-benefits-of-brts/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T084304Z
CREATED:20240508T145650Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T084304Z
UID:10000227-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:A Global Systematic Map and Database of Climate Change Research on Cities
DESCRIPTION:The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agreed to publish a special report (SR) on cities in assessment report (AR) 7 cycle. The SR seeks to summarise the evidence on climate change impacts and the unique adaptation and mitigation options of cities. However\, a systematic overview of the literature on cities\, and particularly urban case studies\, is missing. This article fills this gap. We show that the IPCC better covers topics for which it can build on existing reviews. However\, city case studies\, which are growing faster than other research on human settlements and climate\, remain insufficiently reviewed and synthesized\, posing a considerable gap in the overall assessment of the cities and climate change literature. This gap is most pronounced in case studies on climate change mitigation. Hence\, the IPCC needs to place considerable emphasis on assessing more than the existing 20\,000 case studies as an underpinning of the SR on cities. Using machine learning to map out the topics in this research space\, we provide a comprehensive and accessible global research map and database useful for evidence-synthesis research on cities and climate change.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/a-global-systematic-map-and-database-of-climate-change-research-on-cities/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090301Z
CREATED:20240508T110636Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090301Z
UID:10000132-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Institutionalising the use of evidence in environmental policy decision-making in South Africa: process\, structures\, and good governance of evidence
DESCRIPTION:This presentation will assess the status quo of the institutionalisation of the use of evidence in environmental policy decision-making in South Africa. Based on nine years of supporting the center of government and environmental ministries in the country\, we will unpack the history and politics of the process of institutionalising evidence use for environmental policy decision-making. This will include case studies of major institutional developments such as the formation of the Department of Planning\, Monitoring and Evaluation\, the design and implementation of the National Evaluation System\, the introduction of the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment System (SEIAS)\, and the development of responsive evidence management and embedded co-production in the public sector. Using a new checklist for assessing the level of institutionalisation of evidence use\, we will then provide a transparent account of the current extent of institutionalisation within the environmental evidence ecosystem in the country. By doing so\, we will highlight gaps and best practice in the use of evidence and recommend steps towards ensuring a sustainable system of evidence use at all levels of policy decision-making.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/institutionalising-the-use-of-evidence-in-environmental-policy-decision-making-in-south-africa-process-structures-and-good-governance-of-evidence/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090215Z
CREATED:20240508T110529Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090215Z
UID:10000131-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Global expert evaluations of net-zero policies and actors
DESCRIPTION:To successfully achieve the net-zero transition on ambitious timelines\, stakeholders from across the public and private sectors must collaborate and pursue multiple\, parallel policy solutions. In an international sample of experts in the net-zero energy transition (n = 430)\, we investigate patterns of policy support and actor responsibility. We investigate the preference schemata that shape experts’ preferred solution-sets—whether they use a single-solution (i.e.\, ‘silver bullet’) or a multi-solution (i.e.\, ‘silver buckshot’) schema. Overall\, we find high support for multiple policies\, including the policies of funding research\, required reporting\, and ambitious mandatory energy efficiency standards. We also find that perceived support for the net-zero energy transition from the public is associated with greater policy support by experts. To explore the comprehensive policy mix we apply the Causal Attribute Network (CAN) model to the ratings of policy instruments (mechanism support) and implementation (actor responsibility). We identify policy- and actor-level clusters of preference and interactions between different policies and actors. Finally\, we identify eleven communities of experts that are characterized by their policy and actor evaluations. The largest community supports mandatory policies with a non-economic mechanism. Communities have different distinguishing features. Community membership accounts for variation in policy and actor ratings beyond that which is captured by demographic measures and project experience. Taken together\, the individual- and network-level analyses reveal that experts are willing to accept multi-pronged solutions\, but the specific solutions set is heterogeneous and reveals different cooperative paths to net-zero. We offer a new perspective for thinking about policy packages for the energy transition and advanced methods to measure the support for multi-solution policy packages.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/global-expert-evaluations-of-net-zero-policies-and-actors/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090138Z
CREATED:20240508T110433Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090138Z
UID:10000130-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Introducing the "What Works in Climate Policy" Project: Catalyzing Green Budgeting in Catalonia
DESCRIPTION:Catalonia\, in order to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges\, apart from prioritizing relevant direct policy measures\, is also developing an ambitious and holistic green budgeting reform\, which covers the whole budget cycle and components\, including revenue and expenditure tagging\, budget requests climate appraisal\, climate fiscal risks identification and management\, climate-focused policy evaluations and generating evidence for better policies in the climate and environmental area. \nPrecisely\, in regard to generating policy evidence\, the Catalan government and the Catalan Institute for Public Policy Evaluation (Ivàlua) are jointly launching the “”What Works in Climate Policy””. This initiative aims to bridge the gap between scientific evidence and policy formulation\, so that evidence use\, and policy evaluations are systematically incorporated in climate policy-design processes\, and therefore\, favoring greater policy effectiveness in such policies. The main expected outputs of this project are concise and accessible evidence review reports\, and complementary events and workshops to disseminate the obtained evidence. \nThe initiative is ambitious in the way it intends to actively engage key stakeholders within Catalonia’s climate policy ecosystem at every stage of the evidence synthesis and dissemination process. First\, through a project taskforce that comprises the Directorate-General of Budget\, the Department of Climate Action and Ivàlua. Then\, university experts are entrusted with the synthesis of evidence\, focusing on the effectiveness of diverse policy tools in achieving specific climate objectives. Additionally\, a select group of local experts from Catalan public administration\, non-governmental organizations\, and academia will contribute with valuable insights throughout the entire process. Finally\, to enhance practical implementation\, targeted workshops will be organized for professionals from units with competencies in the subject matter of each evidence review to incentivize the actual utilization of synthesized evidence to inform and shape climate policy decisions.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/introducing-the-what-works-in-climate-policy-project-catalyzing-green-budgeting-in-catalonia/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090101Z
CREATED:20240508T110325Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090101Z
UID:10000129-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Using evidence mapping and co-production to establish a responsive evidence synthesis service in the environmental sector in South Africa
DESCRIPTION:Policymakers in the environmental sector require timely access to the most relevant and high-quality evidence in order to support decision-making. Rapid response services (RRS) present one mechanism to provide these environmental policymakers with such access. Since 2018\, the Johannesburg Centre for Environmental Evidence has implemented such an RRS with the National Department of Environmental Affairs in South Africa. Modelled on the pioneering RRS in Uganda at Makerere University\, our service too is based on rapid evidence synthesis methodology. The South African Responsive Environmental Evidence Service (REES) is powered by a mega map of all environmental evidence in the county\, comprising over 2000 pieces of evidence. In addition\, our service places an emphasis on co-construction of evidence introducing an element of ‘responsiveness’ over ‘rapidness’. That is\, the environmental policymakers are involved in each step of the rapid evidence response and shape its design. This presentation will summarise our learning on the RESS including the initial design and subsequent adaptations.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/using-evidence-mapping-and-co-production-to-establish-a-responsive-evidence-synthesis-service-in-the-environmental-sector-in-south-africa/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T090023Z
CREATED:20240508T110215Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T090023Z
UID:10000128-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Synthesizing and communicating evidence for climate policies to European policy-makers
DESCRIPTION:The European Parliament has been a major actor in defining policies to achieve climate neutrality\, notably with the adoption of the European Climate Law and the ‘Fit for 55’ package. In 2020\, the European Parliament Research Service (EPRS) established a Climate Action Research and Tracking Service with the task to synthesize and communicate evidence for climate policies to the Members of the European Parliament. The service aims to provide authoritative\, objective and unbiased information and analysis to the political decision-makers\, in clear language and supported by graphs and infographics. This should enable policy-makers to make well-informed decisions on highly technical legislative proposals in the area of climate action – “empowering by knowledge”.\nOur approach is to provide evidence from different perspectives (scientific\, technological\, economic\, social\, legal\, political)\, drawing on a variety of sources including IPCC and other assessment reports\, peer-reviewed publications\, Eurostat and other statistical sources\, think tank and industry publications\, European Commission’s impact assessment and other modelling studies\, opinion surveys.\nOur output consists of publicly available studies\, briefing papers and infographics\, and confidential in-person briefings and replies to individual information requests. We produced a series of publications on climate action performance and strategies of the EU\, each Member State\, and major economies outside of Europe.\nWe encountered the following challenges in communicating scientific/economic evidence to decision-makers\, who often have limited time and attention span:\n– Communicate risk\, probability and uncertainty in a clear manner\n– Simplify complex concepts to make them understandable\, but avoiding inaccurate or misleading statements\n– Selecting the most relevant facts and data points to communicate\nAs the Parliament has the powers to amend legislative proposals in the area of climate action\, there is an unmet need for evidence regarding the expected impacts of such amendments on GHG emissions\, employment and competitiveness.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/synthesizing-and-communicating-evidence-for-climate-policies-to-european-policy-makers/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T084033Z
CREATED:20240508T074833Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T084033Z
UID:10000028-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Will tracking climate adaptation progress in Africa be a myth or reality? Juxtaposing Nationally Determined Contributions and the Global Goal on Adaptation Framework
DESCRIPTION:The core of the 2015 Paris Agreement and accomplishment of its long-term objectives lie in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Adaptation commitment in the NDCs represents efforts by each country to adapt to climate impacts and address challenges posed by climate change. The Paris Agreement further established the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the GGA framework adopted at COP28 sets global targets for adaptation outcomes in key sectors and processes. As such\, there is growing focus on tracking multi-scale adaptation progress. Here\, we provide a contrasting overview of adaptation assessment in Africa’s NDCs and the GGA regarding aligning adaptation goals and targets\, monitoring and evaluation efforts\, as well as identifying best practices for measuring effective adaptation and monitoring progress made to guide planning\, design\, and implementation of adaptation efforts for reporting at the global level. While the GGA framework highlights targets and guides areas for adaptation action a review of the adaptation aspects of African governments’ NDCs shows a lack of precision in terms of clearly identifying vulnerabilities\, priority sectors\, actions taken to date\, needed support\, cost\, and financial gaps. Such contrasts provide insights into potential challenges in tracking adaptation efforts and outcomes by governments which might jeopardize efforts to report at the global level. Considering emerging global perspectives and increasing emphasis on conducting the Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement\, possible progress in achieving the GGA\, measuring adaptation effectiveness and metrics\, we suggest ways to systematically monitor and report adaptation actions to ensure both NDCs and GGA are achieving their stated objectives and contributing to effective climate adaptation across climate research\, policy\, and investment.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/will-tracking-climate-adaptation-progress-in-africa-be-a-myth-or-reality-juxtaposing-nationally-determined-contributions-and-the-global-goal-on-adaptation-framework/
LOCATION:H 0111
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T083915Z
CREATED:20240508T074503Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T083915Z
UID:10000026-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Building a Team for Designing and Developing Evidence-Based Decision-Making Platforms for Climate Change Adaptation in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)
DESCRIPTION:
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/building-a-team-for-designing-and-developing-evidence-based-decision-making-platforms-for-climate-change-adaptation-in-low-and-middle-income-countries-lmics/
LOCATION:H 0111
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T083829Z
CREATED:20240508T074321Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T083829Z
UID:10000025-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Digital Twin Technology Capability for Climate Change Adaptation
DESCRIPTION:Destination Earth (DestinE) is a flagship initiative of the European Commission to develop a highly-accurate digital model (i.e.\, digital twin) of the Earth to model\, monitor and simulate natural phenomena\, hazards and the related human activities. A key development of DestinE is the digital twin engine for climate adaptation (Climate DT) to operationalise highly accurate climate projections at km scale to support robust decision making for climate change adaptation across sectors and therefore build societal resilience. Another key development of DestinE is the generic adaptation modelling framework designed to empower end-users in harnessing digital twin technology and highly accurate and on-demand climate modelling capability for appraising adaptation options and identifying cost-effective measures that deliver just and equitable climate solutions. The DestinE adaptation modelling framework aims to address the multifaceted aspects of the climate adaptation process from impact assessment to monitoring and evaluation. We will present DestinE’s climate DT and adaptation modelling framework and illustrate ongoing use case applications addressing climate adaptation in cities and coastal areas.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/digital-twin-technology-capability-for-climate-change-adaptation/
LOCATION:H 0111
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T163000
DTSTAMP:20240529T083751Z
CREATED:20240508T074156Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T083751Z
UID:10000024-1718031600-1718037000@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Including overshoot risks in long-term evidence-based adaptation planning
DESCRIPTION:As climate change intensifies\, it is essential to take a wide range of climate scenarios and their consequential impacts into account for adaptation planning. Overshoot scenarios\, during which global warming will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target before it is brought down again in the following decades\, are increasingly likely under current emissions trajectories. They would result in complex risks such as limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts and stress the need to prepare long-term adaptation solutions under deep uncertainty. \nHere\, we introduce the latest version of the Overshooting Proofing Methodology\, a policy instrument or self-assessment tool designed to guide adaptation planners and policy-makers to integrate overshoot risks into planning processes. We will present novel insights from its initial use with key stakeholders at city and regional levels\, highlighting its applicability in varied contexts along with a range of climate data related challenges. We also reflect on how adaptation pathways can allow to adequately plan a sequence of adaptation measures over time based on information collected through this tool. This work provides insights on key data gaps\, capacity building needs and avenues for future robust adaptation solutions\, policy-making and research.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/including-overshoot-risks-in-long-term-evidence-based-adaptation-planning/
LOCATION:H 0111
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240603T071344Z
CREATED:20240508T134108Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240603T071344Z
UID:10000192-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Assessing and Comparing the Effects of Climate Public Policies – A New Approach
DESCRIPTION:Assessing and comparing the effects of climate policy measures is of central academic and practical concern. Existing approaches either focus on individual climate policies or the effect of entire climate “policy regimes.” What is missing is an approach that captures and compares the effects of individual climate policies within the context of larger climate policy portfolios. This gap can lead to inaccurate predictions and a less nuanced understanding of climate policy impacts. To address this gap\, a more integrated analytical framework is needed—one that considers the interplay and cumulative effects of various policy measures within countries’ broader climate strategies. \nThis paper introduces such an approach. Drawing on models developed in the area of genome-wide association studies\, we establish an analytical procedure that (1) encapsulates and delineates the entire spectrum of climate policies and (2) discerns and contrasts the influence of each policy on greenhouse gas emissions vis-à-vis the wider policy framework. This dual-phase process not only dissects singular policy impacts but also places them into a comparative context alongside the cumulative effects of concurrent policy measures. \nThis Bayesian-based procedure – the so-called “Conditional Effects in Climate Change Policies” (CECCP) approach creates a concise overview of a particular policy regime and clusters its components into policies with positive\, negative\, and no associations with emission changes. Our empirical application investigates climate policy effects across 21 OECD countries over a span of more than two decades\, revealing intricate dynamics and efficacy profiles of climate policies. This comprehensive analysis underscores the heterogeneity in policy effectiveness and emphasizes the potential for policy learning and transfer within and across countries. Through CECCP\, policy-makers are equipped with a more refined toolset for assessing the effectiveness of different climate policy options.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/assessing-and-comparing-the-effects-of-climate-public-policies-a-new-approach/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240531T085026Z
CREATED:20240508T133352Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T085026Z
UID:10000187-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The Impact of Demand Response on Energy Consumption and Economic Welfare
DESCRIPTION:In 2022 and 2023\, the Electricity System Operator of Great Britain introduced the first-ever country level Demand Flexibility Service\, a program aimed at encouraging utilities and the general population to curtail energy demand during peak times. The DFS auctioned off MWh reductions to the grid. Octopus Energy\, a utility\, was the largest participant in this service\, implementing the initiative under the title ‘Saving Sessions’. This comprised 13 individual demand response sessions offered to 1.4 million Octopus Energy customers\, with incentives awarded for reducing energy consumption. \nCentre for Net Zero (CNZ)\, an impact-driven research unit\, conducted research into how Octopus Energy customers responded to these flexibility events. As part of the Octopus Energy Group\, CNZ has access to its large and valuable customer dataset\, providing a unique insight into energy behaviours. We operate autonomously and set our own research agenda. \nUtilising comprehensive consumer data and employing various identification methods\, we estimated the impact of this nationwide program on energy demand and economic welfare. \nAdditionally\, we conducted a natural field experiment involving different advance notice periods and incentives provided to customers for their participation in a Saving Session. We found: (i) the Saving Sessions resulted in a 10% reduction in energy demand associated with being invited to participate and\, based on an estimated local average treatment effect\, a 40% reduction from those actively opting in to Sessions (where individuals manually made adjustments within their homes to change demand); (ii) shorter advance notice periods for signed up customers dampened the demand response from these households by 25%\, according to our preferred model specifications; and (iii) the Saving Sessions demonstrated a marginal value of public funds between 1.05 and 2.6\, depending on when the grid is approaching a blackout\, indicating that the program yielded positive benefits relative to the costs involved.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-impact-of-demand-response-on-energy-consumption-and-economic-welfare/
LOCATION:H 0107
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240531T084747Z
CREATED:20240508T132855Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T084747Z
UID:10000184-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:'Moments of change' and low-carbon behaviours: A multidisciplinary\, systematic review
DESCRIPTION:Behaviour change is required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit climate change. Over the last two decades\, there has been considerable interest in particular instances when people’s habits and routines become more amenable to change. These instances are referred to as ‘moments of change’ (MoCs). The recent and rapid increase in research in this area calls for a systematic review of the topic. We draw upon evidence from 132 articles\, identified through Scopus and Web of Science\, on the effects of biographical (e.g.\, relocation) and exogenous (e.g.\, financial crises) life events on climate change mitigation behaviours (e.g.\, mobility). Most of the research is concentrated on the Global North\, (UK\, USA\, Germany\, etc.) and often there are confounding factors within studies’ designs and methodologies. There are mixed results in terms of support for behaviour change during MoCs. Frequently\, if there is evidence of behaviour changes\, they are dependent on contextual (e.g.\, physical infrastructure)\, demographic\, social\, and economic factors. Articles focus more on biographical MoCs (particularly relocation) than exogenous MoCs\, and on consumption behaviours (particularly mobility)\, rather than on social or political behaviours\, such as activism. Few of the papers explicitly test theories or models; the ones which do mostly concentrate on the habit discontinuity hypothesis. Future research could focus on investigating more granular details of MoCs (e.g.\, habits\, planning\, timing) and how interventions might be better targeted to capitalise on MoCs. This review highlights the importance of considering when\, as well as how\, to foster low-carbon behaviour change.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/moments-of-change-and-low-carbon-behaviours-a-multidisciplinary-systematic-review/
LOCATION:H 0107
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240531T084341Z
CREATED:20240508T132721Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240531T084341Z
UID:10000183-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The Implications of Behavioural Science for Effective Climate Policy
DESCRIPTION:The UK committed to achieve legally binding Net Zero targets by 2050\, which requires significant behaviour changes of consumers\, business leaders\, and others across all sectors. This literature review\, commissioned by the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) [1]\, synthesises key findings and implications of behavioural science for effective climate policy in eight main sectors: diet change\, reducing end-user consumption\, aviation\, adaptation\, Net Zero skills and careers\, business leaders and the transition to sustainability\, land use and farming\, and policy acceptability.\nWe used Scopus to find relevant academic literature and issued a call for evidence to experts and stakeholders in the environmental field for further input. Additionally\, we used Google searches for relevant grey literature. In total\, we found 398 sources and synthesised key findings from important review papers\, supported by relevant studies and reports when reviews were not available or recent enough. The initial findings were discussed at a roundtable with invited experts to inform final policy recommendations.\nThe review revealed that behaviour change towards low-carbon or climate-resilient actions is influenced by individual factors (knowledge\, values)\, social factors (norms\, group identity)\, and practical factors (functionality\, ease\, price). We found that ‘midstream’ and ‘upstream’ interventions – focusing on making behaviour easier and shifting social norms\, respectively – prove more effective than ‘downstream’ approaches\, which focus on individuals’ motivation.\nKey takeaways for using behavioural science in climate policy include prioritising impactful and feasible behavioural targets\, tailoring interventions using theoretical models\, combining downstream and upstream approaches\, tailoring to diverse populations\, timing interventions strategically\, engaging the public\, and improving evidence and policy evaluation. We will discuss the specific recommendations for the eight sectors and implications for climate policy more generally. \n[1]: Disclaimer: These are CAST research findings and recommendations and are not CCC or CCC endorsed recommendations.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-implications-of-behavioural-science-for-effective-climate-policy/
LOCATION:H 0107
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080915Z
CREATED:20240508T114349Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080915Z
UID:10000157-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Wikimedia Projects as Key Elements of the Global Climate Literacy Landscape
DESCRIPTION:As climate-related matters touch ever more aspects of ever more people’s lives\, it is essential to provide the public with verifiable information that helps to understand climate issues and their ramifications\, including potential solutions and the conditions under which they might or might not work. Wikimedia projects – i.e. Wikipedia and its sister sites like Wikidata and Wikimedia Commons – can and do play an important role in building\, strengthening and sustaining climate literacy: they provide a sizeable share of the global population with general reference information on a very broad range of climate-related topics\, in a place where people and machines are looking for such information\, in languages that they can understand\, on an ongoing basis and in ways that allow essentially any individual or group to participate. \nThis contribution will provide a guided tour around how various climate issues and potential solutions are reflected in the content and in the workflows of various Wikimedia projects. Examples will be drawn from various domains of climate-related research and practice. The discussion will include biases and gaps in coverage as well as the handling of misinformation and other non-constructive contributions. It will also outline opportunities for actors in the climate solution and climate literacy space to embrace the collaborative nature of these platforms and to engage with their contents\, communities or technology stack. Different forms of such engagement will be demoed.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/wikimedia-projects-as-key-elements-of-the-global-climate-literacy-landscape/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080801Z
CREATED:20240508T114127Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080801Z
UID:10000155-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:The IPCC at a crossroads: leaving policy relevance behind?
DESCRIPTION:The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been a crucial facilitator of climate change research and governance. A special collection of npj Climate Action have published a range of research articles\, reviews and perspectives that discuss the achievements of the IPCC\, the challenges it faces when it enters its 7th assessment cycle\, and suggestions for solutions. In this piece we assess all the contributions on the IPCC in the npj Climate Action journal\, see these in relation to resource constraints of the IPCC and the decisions already made that will constrain and facilitate the work of the IPCC in the coming assessment cycle. On this backdrop\, we develop answers to the question: How can IPCC processes and outcomes be reformed to produce knowledge that is more relevant for climate action? In this outro\, we pay specific attention to the four possible reform agendas for the IPCC in the form of ideal types that we presented in the introduction to the special collection: Back to Basics\, Orchestrating\, Broad Knowledge Generation and Reflexive Learning. We show that all of these have their advantages and disadvantages\, but the IPCC cannot achieve everything all ant once.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/the-ipcc-at-a-crossroads-leaving-policy-relevance-behind/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080731Z
CREATED:20240508T114005Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080731Z
UID:10000154-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Use systematic reviews to inform IPCC uncertainty assessments
DESCRIPTION:Acknowledging that effective communication of uncertainty is a critical element of scientific assessment\, the IPCC has adopted a standardized uncertainty assessment framework to enhance transparency and dependability in its findings. Despite these efforts\, author teams frequently encounter difficulties in the assessment process\, leading to unclear assessment justifications and confusion among readers of the report. \nOur study displays how to use rigorous and transparent evidence synthesis methods\, typically found in systematic reviews and meta-analyses\, to enhance the assessment of uncertainties. Focusing on empirical ex-post evidence\, we show how IPCC authors can use the information provided by gold standard systematic reviews to evaluate all dimensions that are relevant for the assessment of uncertainty – type\, amount\, quantity\, quality\, consistency and agreement – while providing a clear and traceable rationale for their assessment decision. \nTo better guide and structure the assessment\, we advocate for the adoption of assessment summary tables\, inspired by the Grading of Recommendations\, Assessment\, Development\, and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence-to-decision framework. These tables streamline the assessment process and significantly boost transparency. \nOur approach demonstrates a practical and effective method for authors to adhere to the IPCC’s standards for uncertainty assessment\, thereby contributing to more reliable and credible scientific assessments in the field of climate action.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/use-systematic-reviews-to-inform-ipcc-uncertainty-assessments/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080526Z
CREATED:20240508T113839Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080526Z
UID:10000153-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Questioning the use of median values in IPCC AR6 scenarios
DESCRIPTION:In 2022\, the IPCC WGIII finalized the 6th assessment report (AR6) and delivered an open database hosted by IIASA that collects detailed data on possible transition pathways related to the third chapter.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/questioning-the-use-of-median-values-in-ipcc-ar6-scenarios/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T080443Z
CREATED:20240508T113553Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T080443Z
UID:10000152-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Indicators of Global Climate Change
DESCRIPTION:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)\, including the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However\, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years\, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. \nWe follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers\, greenhouse gas concentrations\, radiative forcing\, surface temperature changes\, the Earth’s energy imbalance\, warming attributed to human activities\, the remaining carbon budget\, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort\, grounded in an open data\, open science approach\, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192\, Smith et al.\, 2023a). As they are traceable to IPCC report methods\, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. \nOver the 2013–2022 period\, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 ∘C per decade.Despite this\, there is evidence that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have slowed\, and depending on societal choices\, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for human influence on climate.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/indicators-of-global-climate-change/
LOCATION:H 0110
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T083328Z
CREATED:20240508T100511Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T083328Z
UID:10000104-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Evaluating low-carbon urban planning strategies across urban typologies using causal machine learning
DESCRIPTION:With climate change and rapid urban migration\, cities face the question of where to locate new residents to minimize travel and related CO2 emissions. While the IPCC suggests general planning concepts such as compact or transit-oriented development\, a place-specific understanding of how this translates to the local context is lacking.\nHere\, we introduce a novel approach to assess the induced transport CO2 emissions for different urban planning strategies and determine the city-specific\, optimal locations for low-carbon residential development. We use double machine learning to estimate the non-linear effect of the built environment on travel-related CO2 emissions for each neighborhood while controlling for residential self-selection. Using a selection of global cities with diverse urban typologies\, we demonstrate how optional low-carbon urban planning differs across city typologies. Based on population projections for 2050\, we assess the global mitigation potential compared to a business-as-usual scenario characterized by increasing urban sprawl. Our results underscore the importance of evidence-based\, spatially differentiated compact development to decarbonize the transport sector.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/evaluating-low-carbon-urban-planning-strategies-across-urban-typologies-using-causal-machine-learning/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T083152Z
CREATED:20240508T100140Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T083152Z
UID:10000102-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Urban typologies in climate risk and adaptation studies: Approaches\, applications\, remaining gaps and ways forward
DESCRIPTION:The amount of scientific knowledge and published case studies on climate risks and adaptation action in cities has been rising sharply over the recent years. Typologies\, archetypes or clustering approaches have been used in a range of studies and science-for-policy reports in an attempt to structure the wealth of case study information into larger profiles that facilitate general analysis and policy-advice. However\, no single-best approach has yet emerged that allows to capture the diversity and multi-dimensionality of urban risk profiles and adaptation challenges in a comprehensive\, dynamic and comparative manner. Rather\, different approaches suggested to date all come with their individual capabilities and limits. Their synergies and trade-offs as well as their potential for integration yet has to be examined in more detail.\nThis paper therefore provides a comprehensive review of the ways in which urban typologies have been used in the field of climate risk and adaptation\, covering (a) the academic literature\, (b) the IPCC’s latest assessment cycle and (c) practice and policy documents at the global scale. Based on a structured literature and document analysis it assesses which approaches have been applied in which domains and which strengths and weaknesses have been highlighted. The paper then provides a structured analysis of current overlaps and gaps in order to identify potential entry points for the integration of different existing approaches. In addition\, it suggests potential future amendments of urban typologies based on newly emerging data sources and analysis techniques. Lastly\, the paper sets out an evaluation framework which shall be used in the future to have the proposed integrations and amendments undergo an expert evaluation by prospective recipients and users of urban typology information.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/urban-typologies-in-climate-risk-and-adaptation-studies-approaches-applications-remaining-gaps-and-ways-forward/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T083105Z
CREATED:20240508T100029Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T083105Z
UID:10000101-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Unpacking capacity for climate action: mechanisms shaping the effect of organisational capacity on policy implementation at the local level
DESCRIPTION:In recent years\, local governments have gained significant importance in the implementation of climate policy. Cities and municipalities offer place-based and context-specific solutions to climate-related and –specific problems. However\, cities also often face an implementation challenge. Previous studies have consistently found a general influence of capacity as a key constraint for local governments. Scholars generally point to the influence of various forms of organisational capacity\, namely human capacity\, financial resources\, community support\, operational expertise\, networks\, political will or local autonomy. Yet\, the empirical record shows mixed results: while organisational capacity does lead to successful climate action\, both false negatives and false positives are also observed.\nIn light of the above\, a closer look into the mechanisms linking organisational capacity and successful urban climate action is due. To that end\, yielding more than 20 cases we explore both successful and unsuccessful climate action in medium-sized European cities\, covering paradigmatic configurations of organisational capacity factors – that is\, different typologies of a “capable” city. Preliminary results reveal mechanisms that manifest themselves across typologies. More interestingly\, though\, we also observe a number of typology-specific mechanisms and their respective implementation challenges. A good understanding of these mechanisms and how they relate to specific typologies of cities will be crucial in developing capacity-building and knowledge transfer schemes in the context of both national and transnational support for urban climate action. Its implications are important for cities so that they invest their scarce resources more efficiently and thereby reach climate neutrality targets faster.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/unpacking-capacity-for-climate-action-mechanisms-shaping-the-effect-of-organisational-capacity-on-policy-implementation-at-the-local-level/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082822Z
CREATED:20240508T095848Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082822Z
UID:10000100-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Scaling urban climate action through archetypes: a city-matching approach
DESCRIPTION:Numerous city governments around the world have positioned themselves as “leaders” in efforts to deal with climate change. Although valuable\, these efforts require scaling in order to achieve the needed impact. Here\, we argue that horizontal scaling\, i.e. the diffusion of ambitious climate action across cities\, will benefit from appropriate city typologies. Typologies can foster the intentional processes of city matching: Identifying and studying pairs or clusters of cities with similar or complementary structural or strategic attributes (like size\, cultural heritage\, national context\, economic structure\, interventions\, political agency). \nHowever\, matching cities requires a methodological approach which takes into account the heterogeneity of cities and their contexts. We propose archetype analysis as a means to help research and match city types that most likely to facilitate horizontal scaling. Generally\, archetype analysis investigates recurrent patterns of a phenomenon of interest by identifying multiple dynamics or patterns\, each explaining the phenomenon under a particular set of conditions. This comparative approach enables us to identify different kinds of cases when general regularities that apply to all cases cannot be expected. It can address research questions like: To advance horizontal scaling\, does city matching work better between cities of the same archetype? Do cities with different but complementary archetypes match better? \nThis paper showcases how such questions can be addressed. Drawing from a literature review and a research workshop synthesis\, it proposes some archetypes that may facilitate matching. For instance\, leader and follower cities might not match so straightforward\, while matching cities with similar social problems might support scaling well. We posit that empirically testing such archetypes will contribute to scaling successful urban climate action.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/scaling-urban-climate-action-through-archetypes-a-city-matching-approach/
LOCATION:H 3005
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082211Z
CREATED:20240508T090444Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082211Z
UID:10000070-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Building Open-Source Empirical Models to Forecast Carbon Emissions
DESCRIPTION:Formulating and implementing climate policy requires a detailed understanding of likely pathways of future carbon emissions. However\, most existing tools to provide forecasts for such emissions exhibit several limitations. Projections are predominantly made for the long-term\, lacking the necessary detail within the typical policy horizon of one to five years. Moreover\, most short-term forecasting models are closed-source ‘black-boxes’ that do not reveal in detail how the obtained forecasts are generated. This paper contributes to closing this gap of a lack of transparent short-term emission forecasts by developing a generalised framework for modelling climate and environmental policies within an empirical macro-econometric modelling approach that is standardised for a large number of countries but allows for immense flexibility. The Aggregate Model is an open-source econometric model builder that primarily aims to provide empirical forecasts of sectoral carbon emissions. The estimated models are based on econometric tools from the robust time series modelling literature such as diagnostic testing\, model selection\, indicator saturation\, and automatic forecast evaluation. We present an illustrative example of how the Aggregate Model as a model-builder tool can be used to forecast different sectoral emissions in Austria. We therefore provide the first short term sectoral emission forecasts for Austria. By putting open-source transparency and replicability at the heart of this project\, we contribute to opening up the existing forecasting space to wider academic discussion\, criticism\, and improvement and hope to provide crucial tools to policy-makers.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/building-open-source-empirical-models-to-forecast-carbon-emissions/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082143Z
CREATED:20240508T090324Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082143Z
UID:10000069-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades
DESCRIPTION:Meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. Here\, we provide the first global\, systematic ex-post evaluation identifying policy combinations that have led to large emission reductions out\nof 1\,500 climate policies implemented between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries from six continents. Our approach integrates a novel climate policy database that is the most comprehensive\, internationally harmonized\, policy inventory to-date\, with a rigorous\, machine learning-based extension of the common difference-in-differences approach. We identify 63 successful policy interventions with total emission reductions between 0.6 and 1.8 Gt CO2. Our insights on effective but rarely studied policies and previously unknown effective combinations of policies highlight the important role of price-based instruments in well-designed policy mixes\, and the policy efforts necessary for closing the emissions gap in the building\, electricity\, industry\, and transport sectors.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/climate-policies-that-achieved-major-emission-reductions-global-evidence-from-two-decades/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Berlin:20240610T143000
DTSTAMP:20240529T082111Z
CREATED:20240508T085937Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240529T082111Z
UID:10000068-1718024400-1718029800@whatworksclimate.solutions
SUMMARY:Attributing Increases in Green Patenting to Disruptive Climate Policies
DESCRIPTION:While the role of innovation in the green transition is widely acknowledged\, ex-post evaluations of policy instruments and policy mixes are limited to a few headline policy instruments. In this paper\, we use patent family data from 22 countries for the years 2000 to 2019\, covering 95% of total green patenting activity\, and combine a differences-in-differences model with a machine learning-based variable selection algorithm to detect structural breaks in the patent counts time series. We attribute positive and negative structural breaks to policies from the recently published OECD climate mitigation policy database and find that policy mixes that include pricing instruments are most effective in stimulating energy\, solar and wind patenting. The results are robust to alternative specifications using standard synthetic control methods.
URL:https://whatworksclimate.solutions/presentation/attributing-increases-in-green-patenting-to-disruptive-innovation-policies/
LOCATION:H 0104 (Elinor Ostrom Hall)
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR